Published on August 10, 2024 4:21 AM GMT
1. What is overpopulation?
Overpopulation is when there is an excessive number of occupants (people, animals, plants, etc.) in a particular area. Specifically, that is when the number of occupants exceeds the carrying capacity, i.e. the ability of that area to provide for them. Overpopulation is preceded by ecological overshoot.
The primary misconception of overpopulation is that it only depends on the number of organisms/people (within the environment). This misconception also assumes that if a certain number of individuals can be supported in the present, there’ll be no problems in the future, but this is not true.
Aside from the population size, all the other factors that are needed to determine overpopulation are the ones that determine the carrying capacity of a defined environment. We need to determine the carrying capacity in order to determine overpopulation. And the only way to calculate it is with a mathematical model.
Thus, overpopulation is determined by at least four parameters (or at least six for humans):
- The number of creatures (usually of a single species) in an areaAn area and its available resourcesThe average ecological footprint per creature (for humans, the average standard of living per capita)A timeframeThe technology and substitution options available to those creatures (for humans)The distribution of wealth and opportunities (for humans)
1000 people living in the fertile crescent isn’t overpopulation. 1000 people living on a 2-acre island would almost certainly be so. An area can support far fewer people living first world lifestyles (50-100 full-time energy slaves) than ones living like the typical African bushman.
Some models for determining overpopulation may use more than 4-6 parameters. More parameters would lead to more complex models, but it’s best to maximize both simplicity and accuracy. There are trade-offs to both, and some models are better than others.
We have a proposal for preventing overpopulation that is likely to succeed with the fewest number of negative consequences. The only way the proposal could fail is if we don’t gain the collective political will to implement it.
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