Annie Duke，扑克界传奇人物，在 Hidden Forces 播客中分享了她的决策智慧。她强调，在面对重大决策时，不要被不确定性吓倒，而是要将决策视为“下注”，评估我们对事物的确定性程度，追踪可能的结果，并分析失败的概率。通过这种方式，我们可以减少决策过程中的恐惧和消极情绪，拥抱不确定性，并做出更明智的决定。

🤔 决策如同“下注”：Annie Duke 认为，将决策视为“下注”可以帮助我们更好地处理不确定性。这意味着要评估我们对事物的确定性程度，追踪可能的结果，并分析失败的概率。

🧠 拥抱不确定性：生活中充满了不确定性，而试图完全消除不确定性只会让我们陷入瘫痪。与其害怕不确定性，不如拥抱它，并学会在不确定性中做出明智的决策。

💪 提高决策能力：通过将决策视为“下注”，我们可以更好地理解风险和回报，并做出更符合我们目标的决策。这有助于我们减少决策过程中的恐惧和消极情绪，并提高我们的长期成功率。

🧠 决策不仅仅是理性：Annie Duke 强调，决策不仅仅是理性分析，还涉及情感和直觉。我们需要学会平衡理性分析和情感直觉，才能做出更全面的决策。

🤝 团队合作：在团队合作中，每个人都应该积极参与决策过程，并分享自己的观点和见解。这有助于团队更好地理解问题，并做出更明智的决策。

📈 持续学习：决策是一个持续学习的过程。我们需要不断反思自己的决策，并从错误中吸取教训，以便在未来做出更好的决策。

🚀 采取行动：决策不仅仅是思考，更需要行动。只有将决策付诸行动，才能看到结果，并不断改进我们的决策能力。

In Episode 48 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Annie Duke and about how we can make smart decisions and ensure our long-term success.

We make millions of decisions over the course of our lives. Most of these seem to be small and of little consequence, and so we make our choices and act with little care or thought. Other decisions require more care and consideration, as their significance will, for better or worse, have a lasting impact on our life: What job offer to accept, what life partner to choose, how to invest in retirement.

When faced with these truly important decisions, many people become crippled by their fear and doubt. What if it’s a bad prediction? What if I am missing information, and so my choice is wrong? Often, such fears have a cascade effect, they trickle down and impact our ability to make even the smallest judgement, leaving us paralyzed.

However, there is a way to increase the likelihood that we’re making a sure bet.

According to Annie Duke, a World Series of Poker champion and the author of Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts, regardless of whether the choice is small or large, the key to solid decision-making rests in our ability to shift our thinking from a need for absolute certainty to “a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't.” In other words, people need to look at every decision as though it were a bet.

Ultimately, Duke argues that by adopting this way of thinking — by assessing how sure we are of something, tracing the possible outcomes, and analyzing the odds of failure — we can ensure long-term success for ourselves, our loved ones, and our business partners.

Calling on her degrees in behavioral and cognitive psychology, and her years of experience in professional poker, throughout the episode, Duke speaks with host Demetri Kofinas about how we can eliminate fear and unproductive emotions from our decision-making processes, embrace uncertainty, and make better decisions.

Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas

Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou

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