《反脆弱》一书阐述了“反脆弱”的概念，即事物在面对波动和不确定性时不仅不会受到损害，反而会从中获益。作者以生动的例子，例如水螅和期权交易，说明了反脆弱性如何通过适应和学习从混乱中获益，并指出在充满不确定性的世界中，拥抱波动性是取得成功的关键。

📚 **反脆弱性：从波动中获益** 《反脆弱》的核心概念是“反脆弱性”，它指的是一种能力，即在面对波动和不确定性时，不仅不会受到损害，反而会从中获益。作者将事物分为三种类型：脆弱、健壮和反脆弱。脆弱的事物在面对波动时会受到损害，例如玻璃杯；健壮的事物在面对波动时不会受到损害，例如石头；而反脆弱的事物则会从波动中获益，例如水螅。 作者认为，在现代社会，我们面临着越来越多的不确定性和波动性，因此，我们需要培养反脆弱性，以便在混乱中取得成功。

🚀 **拥抱波动性：通往成功的关键** 作者认为，拥抱波动性是培养反脆弱性的关键。传统的思维方式总是试图避免风险和不确定性，然而，作者指出，风险和不确定性是不可避免的，而且它们也可能带来机遇。例如，在投资领域，期权交易是一种典型的反脆弱性策略。投资者通过购买期权，可以获得在价格大幅波动时获得高额回报的机会，而损失却有限。 作者认为，我们应该改变思维方式，不再把波动性视为威胁，而是将其视为机遇。通过拥抱波动性，我们可以不断学习和适应，从而在充满不确定性的世界中取得成功。

💡 **反脆弱性：从水螅到期权交易** 作者通过一系列生动的例子来阐释反脆弱性。其中最著名的例子是水螅。水螅是一种水生生物，它具有强大的再生能力。当水螅受到攻击时，它会断裂成多个碎片，每个碎片都可以再生成为一个新的水螅。这种再生能力使水螅能够从攻击中获益，并不断繁殖。 另一个例子是期权交易。期权交易是一种金融衍生品，它允许投资者在特定时间内以特定价格购买或出售某种资产。期权交易的利润与价格波动成正比，因此，它是一种典型的反脆弱性策略。 作者通过这些例子，说明了反脆弱性如何通过适应和学习从混乱中获益。

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/book-review-antifragile

 

Nassim Taleb summarizes the thesis of Antifragile as:

Everything gains or loses from volatility. Fragility is what loses from volatility and uncertainty [and antifragility is what gains from it]. The glass on the table is short volatility.

The glass is fragile: the less you disrupt it, the better it does. A rock is “robust” - neither fragile nor antifragile - it will do about equally well whether you disrupt it or not. What about antifragile? Taleb's first (and cutest) example is the Hydra, which grows more and more heads the more a hero tries to harm it. What else is like this?

Buying options is antifragile. Suppose oil is currently worth $10, and you pay $1 for an option to buy it at $10 next year. If there's a small amount of variance (oil can go up or down 20%), it's kind of a wash. Worst-case scenario, oil goes down 20% to $8, you don't buy it, and you've lost $1 buying the option. Best-case scenario, oil goes up 20% to $12, you exercise your option to buy for $10, you sell it for $12, and you've made a $1 profit - $2 from selling the oil, minus $1 from buying the option. Overall you expect to break even. But if there's large uncertainty - the price of oil can go up or down 1000% - then it's a great deal. Worst-case scenario, oil goes down to negative $90 and you don't buy it, so you still just lost $1. Best case scenario, oil goes up to $110, you exercise your option to buy for $10, and you make $99 ($100 profit minus $1 for the option). So the oil option is antifragile - the more the price varies, the better it will do. The more chaotic things get, the more uncertain and unpredictable the world is, the more oil options start looking like a good deal.