Hidden Forces feed 2024年07月17日
Christopher Cole | The Hundred Year Portfolio: How to Grow & Protect Generational Wealth
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在《Hidden Forces》第122集中,主持人Demetri Kofinas与Artemis Capital Management创始人Christopher Cole探讨了如何增长和保护能够传承一百年的家族财富。Cole提出,百年投资组合必须能够在市场的长期繁荣期中导航,同时在经济收缩、停滞和更新的时期不损失资本。他认为,忽视长期金融历史的教训和缺乏真正的多样化是繁荣百年的最大威胁。解决方案是寻找在股票和债券表现不佳时仍能表现的资产,并在投资组合中大胆配置,无视短期表现。

📈Christopher Cole强调,百年投资组合需在市场的长期繁荣期中保持增长,同时在经济不景气时期避免资本损失。他分析了1947-1963年和1984-2007年的市场繁荣期,以及1929-1946年和1964-1983年的经济收缩期。

🎭许多投资者认为通过多样化资产类别可以分散风险,但在危机中,这样的投资组合常常与市场一同崩溃。Cole指出,真正的多样化应针对长期市场变化。

💡Cole提出,长期波动性、黄金、商品趋势和全球宏观策略应成为投资组合的核心,而不仅仅是边缘投资。投资者可以通过风险平衡的投资组合应用保证金来满足回报目标,而不是从投资组合的各个部分寻求超额回报。

📉在节目的加时环节,Cole分享了他对于构建百年财富的投资组合中应包含哪些资产、数量以及零售和专业投资者如何着手构建和保护这些财富的看法。

In Episode 122 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Christopher Cole, the founder of Artemis Capital Management about how to grow and protect generational wealth that lasts a hundred years. Imagine you have the opportunity to grant your family great wealth and prosperity for 100 years. The opportunity is subject to one final choice. You must decide what assets to invest in and maintain that allocation for an entire century without ever changing it. The future of your children’s children depends on your decision. What do you do?

According to Christopher Cole, in order to be successful the hundred year portfolio must be able to navigate the secular booms of the market (1947-1963,1984-2007) while not losing capital during periods of economic contraction, stagnation, and renewal (1929-1946, 1964-1983). In pursuit of this, many investors assemble a varied portfolio of asset classes thinking there is safety in diversification, but in a crisis, such portfolios often collapse right along with the broader markets. Another class of investors believes they can always time the wild cycles of risk when, in fact, they can barely manage the demons of their greed and fear. The greatest threat to a hundred years of prosperity, according to Chris Cole, is neglecting the lessons from long-term financial history and having no true diversification against secular change. Accordingly, the solution is to find assets that can perform when stocks and bonds don’t and boldly size them in one’s portfolio regardless of short term performance. Long Volatility, Gold, Commodity Trend, and Discretionary Global Macro, according to Mr. Cole, should be core portfolio holdings and not just periphery investments. The investor can then apply margin to the risk-balanced portfolio to meet return targets, rather than seek the excess return from components.

The first part of today’s conversation explores the investing landscape in which retail investors and professional money managers alike find themselves in today. Chris and Demetri discuss factors that have led to volatility suppression and the build-up of risk in financial markets. 

During the overtime segment, Chris shares his views on what assets should occupy such a portfolio, in what quantities, and how retail and accredited investors alike might approach the task of building and protecting generational wealth that can last a hundred years. 

You can access the overtime, transcript, and rundown to this week’s episode through the Hidden Forces Patreon Page. All subscribers also gain access to our overtime feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application. 

Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas

Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou

Subscribe & Support the Podcast at http://patreon.com/hiddenforces

Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod

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财富传承 长期投资 市场波动 资产配置
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