在《Hidden Forces》第363集中，主持人Demetri Kofinas与投资者Paulo Macro和Le Shrub探讨了他们的投资理念、框架及识别投资机会和管理风险的过程。第一部分聚焦于他们的框架，包括发达经济体的新兴市场化、理解政策制定者的激励以及如何用这些框架来预测利率、通胀、信贷配给等。第二部分讨论了当前国际体系及美国军事金融霸权所面临的压力，以及这些因素如何在未来几年放大发达经济体的预算和政治逆风。

🌍 发达经济体的新兴市场化：Paulo和Le Shrub讨论了发达经济体新兴市场化的趋势，以及这一趋势如何影响投资决策和风险管理。

📈 政策制定者的激励机制：两位投资者强调了理解政策制定者激励机制的重要性，并分析了这些激励如何影响经济指标，如利率和通胀。

🏛️ 国际体系压力：探讨了当前国际体系对美国军事和金融霸权的压力，以及这可能如何影响全球投资环境。

🔍 中国政策制定者的难题：讨论了中国政策制定者面临的困境，以及这些困境对全球投资格局的影响。

🛢️ 商品投资机会：分析了在当前经济环境下，商品投资的机遇，以及在寻求新的安全资产过程中的挑战。

In Episode 363 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with investors Paulo Macro and Le Shrub about their investment ideas, frameworks, and processes for identifying investment opportunities and managing risk.

In the first hour, Demetri asks Paulo and Le Shrub about some of their respective frameworks, including the EM-ification of developed economies, the need to understand the incentives of policymakers, and how these frameworks can help inform your expectations about interest rates, inflation, credit rationing, and much more.

In the second hour, Paulo Macro and Le Shrub discuss how the contemporary strain on the international system and on American military and financial hegemony could amplify some of the budgetary and political headwinds facing developed economies in the years ahead. They discuss the conundrum facing policymakers in China, the investment opportunity in commodities, the search for a new safe asset in a world of worsening fiscal balance sheets, and what it feels like to be “financially gaslighted” during an inflationary recession where prices rise as one’s living standard declines.

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Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas

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Episode Recorded on 05/07/2024