Dave Snowden与Jim讨论了他们合著的《应对危机中的复杂性与混沌》一文，探讨了Cynefin框架，并将其发展成一个复杂性驱动的框架，区分了复杂与复杂化，探讨了涌现、赋能约束与治理约束、复杂系统中的开放性、短期目的论与自上而下的因果关系、逃逸线、六西格玛、泰勒制、分布式决策、危机的意义、应对未知的未知、瘟疫与热死、新冠疫情的错误教训、语言和符号学的起源顺序、建立非正式网络、适应、适当的粒度、设置严苛的约束、保留选择权、预期性思维、全面记录、大型语言模型和最近的公开信、对道德意识的需要、群体决策的规模、记录者和执行者、逆理、新冠疫情对复杂性工作的推动、节奏与速度、美式橄榄球中的仪式、用故事设计战略性干预、变化的向量理论、构造理论、使美德的成本低于罪恶的成本、性情管理、即将出版的书籍等等。

🤔 **Cynefin框架**：该框架是一个用于理解和应对复杂性的工具，它将情境分为四个类别：简单、复杂、复杂化和混沌。Snowden解释了该框架如何发展成为一个复杂性驱动的框架，并强调了区分复杂与复杂化的重要性。

🧐 **涌现与约束**：Snowden强调了涌现的概念，即复杂系统中新出现的模式和行为，以及赋能约束和治理约束之间的区别。赋能约束促进创造力和适应性，而治理约束则旨在控制和管理。

🤯 **应对危机**：Snowden探讨了应对危机的必要性，并强调了应对未知的未知的重要性。他指出，新冠疫情暴露了我们对复杂系统的理解不足，并强调了建立非正式网络、保留选择权以及进行预期性思维的重要性。

🧠 **复杂性思维**：Snowden强调了复杂性思维的重要性，包括对道德意识的需要以及群体决策的规模。他认为，我们需要认识到复杂性思维并非万能药，但它可以帮助我们更好地理解和应对复杂的世界。

💡 **应对未来的挑战**：Snowden认为，我们需要学习从错误中吸取教训，并为未来做好准备。他强调了建立非正式网络、保留选择权以及进行预期性思维的重要性，这些方法可以帮助我们应对未来的挑战。

📚 **书籍推荐**：Snowden推荐了Harold J. Morowitz的《万物的涌现：世界如何变得复杂》以及W. Brian Arthur的《技术的本质》等书籍，这些书籍可以帮助我们更好地理解复杂性。

 Jim talks with Dave Snowden about the document he co-authored, "Managing Complexity (And Chaos) In Times of Crisis." They discuss the Cynefin framework, its development into a complexity-informed framework, distinguishing complex from complicated, emergence, enabling constraints vs governing constraints, openness in complex systems, short-term teleology vs top-down causality, lines of flight, six sigma, Taylorism, distributed decision-making, the meaning of crisis, preparing for unknowable unknowns, plagues & heat deaths, false learnings of Covid, the order of origin of language & semiotics, building informal networks, exaptation, the right level of granularity, setting Draconian constraints, preserving optionality, anticipatory thinking, comprehensive journaling, LLMs & the recent open letter, the need for ethical awareness, scales of group decision-making, documenters & doers, the aporetic, Covid as a boon to complexity work, cadence vs velocity, ritual in American football, designing strategic interventions with stories, vector theory of change, constructor theory, making the cost of virtue less than the cost of sin, dispositional management, an upcoming book, and much more. Episode Transcript JRS EP11 - Dave Snowden and Systems Thinking "Managing complexity (and chaos) in times of crisis," by Dave Snowden and others The Emergence of Everything: How the World Became Complex, by Harold J. Morowitz JRS EP138 - W. Brian Arthur on the Nature of Technology JRS EP143 - John Vervaeke Part 1: Awakening from the Meaning CrisisDave Snowden divides his time between two roles: founder Chief Scientific Officer of Cognitive Edge and the founder and Director of the Centre for Applied Complexity at the University of Wales. His work is international in nature and covers government and industry looking at complex issues relating to strategy, organisational decision making and decision making. He has pioneered a science based approach to organisations drawing on anthropology, neuroscience and complex adaptive systems theory. He is a popular and passionate keynote speaker on a range of subjects, and is well known for his pragmatic cynicism and iconoclastic style.