Jim 与复杂性科学家 Peter Turchin 对话，探讨了他所创立的领域——Cliodynamics。该领域运用科学方法研究历史，对话涉及了 Cliodynamics 的含义与起源，及其与传统历史研究方法的区别，如何规范化历史数据，模型与数据的交互，平均身高作为生物福祉的指标，Seshat 数据库项目，社会崩溃的模式观察，精英过剩，相对与绝对工资，财富泵，相对福祉，头重脚轻的社会金字塔，精英的定义，失败的社会精英与激进运动的关联，为何律师是最危险的职业，Musk-Zuckerman 对决显示的精英内部竞争加剧，预测问题，美国分离主义情绪的加强，英国如何避免1848年革命，关闭财富泵，提高最低工资，革命对社会的好处等话题。

🌟 Cliodynamics 是一个将科学方法应用于历史研究的领域，由 Peter Turchin 及其同事创立。它关注社会与文化演化、历史宏观社会学、经济史和计量史学、长期社会过程的数学建模，以及历史数据库的构建与分析。

📊 Seshat 数据库项目是 Turchin 目前的主要研究项目，该项目构建并分析了一个庞大的历史数据库，使我们能够实证检验试图解释复杂人类社会如何演变以及为何周期性经历政治崩溃的理论预测。

🔍 对话中提到，Cliodynamics 区别于传统历史研究，它通过规范化历史数据，建立模型与数据之间的接口，例如使用平均身高作为生物福祉的代理指标，来探究社会变迁。

🌌 Turchin 指出社会崩溃的模式，如精英过剩、财富分配不均导致的社会金字塔头重脚轻，以及失败的社会精英如何成为激进运动的温床。

🚀 讨论还涉及了律师职业的危险性，Musk-Zuckerman 对决所体现的精英内部竞争加剧，以及如何通过提高最低工资、关闭财富泵等措施来预防社会革命。

Jim talks with Peter Turchin about the field he founded, cliodynamics, which applies the scientific method to history. They discuss the meaning & origins of cliodynamics, distinguishing cliodynamics from previous approaches, regularizing historical data, the interface between models & data, average height as a proxy for biological well-being, the Seshat data collection project, observed patterns in collapsing societies, the overproduction of elites, relative vs absolute wage, the wealth pump, relative well-being, a top-heavy social pyramid, defining elites, failed aspirant elites as the raw material for radical movements, why lawyers are the most dangerous profession, the Musk-Zuckerman duel as a sign of increased intra-elite competition, the issue of prediction, the intensification of secessionist sentiment in the U.S., how the British Empire avoided the revolutions of 1848, shutting down the wealth pump, increasing minimum wage, the odds that a revolution would be good for society, and much more. Episode Transcript End Times: Elites, Counter Elites, and the Path of Political Disintegration, by Peter Turchin Historical Dynamics: Why States Rise and Fall, by Peter Turchin War and Peace and War: The Rise and Fall of Empires, by Peter Turchin Ultrasociety: How 10,000 Years of War Made Humans the Greatest Cooperators on Earth, by Peter Turchin The True Believer, by Eric HofferPeter Turchin is a complexity scientist who works in the field of historical social science that he and his colleagues call Cliodynamics. His research interests lie at the intersection of social and cultural evolution,  historical macrosociology, economic history and cliometrics, mathematical modeling of long-term social processes, and the construction and analysis of historical databases. Currently his main research effort is directing the Seshat Databank project (and its offshoot, CrisisDB) which builds and analyzes a massive historical database that enables us to empirically test predictions from theories attempting to explain why and how complex human societies evolved, and why they periodically experience political breakdown.