主持人Michael Mauboussin与价值投资大师Seth Klarman深入对话，分享其从童年投机硬币到创办Baupost的投资历程与哲学。探讨市场无效性、性格重要性、专业与通才、耐心资本等永恒原则，分析当前投资挑战与机遇，并涉及AI技术趋势、市场结构演变及格雷厄姆与多德的持久教诲。

🌱 Seth Klarman童年通过硬币套利展现早期创业精神与价值发现能力，其早期投机经历塑造其长期投资思维。

📚 在Mutual Shares的工作经验使其深刻理解价值投资核心：结合直觉判断与量化分析，在市场非理性中寻找套利机会。

🏦 Baupost成立初期专注于家族财富管理，通过系统性研究建立独特投资框架，强调风险控制与长期回报。

🧠 价值投资需平衡逆向思维与数据分析，既需具备反市场偏见，又需精密计算安全边际，形成理性与直觉的协同。

🤝 投资决策强调实地调研与管理层沟通，通过深入交流评估企业真实意图，避免信息不对称带来的认知偏差。

🧘 培养长期主义投资者需注重性格塑造，通过制度约束与教育引导克服行为偏误，保持理性决策的稳定性。

🤖 AI技术正在变革投资研究效率，Baupost利用技术辅助数据挖掘，但坚持核心价值投资理念不变。

📈 现代市场被动投资趋势加剧竞争，但价值投资者仍能通过深度专业化研究找到结构性机会。

📚 Seth Klarman推荐《Security Analysis》《Moneyball》等经典著作，强调系统性思维与数据驱动决策的重要性。

In this episode, host Michael Mauboussin sits down with Seth Klarman, CEO and portfolio manager of The Baupost Group. One of the most influential practitioners of value investing, Seth shares his formative stories — from arbitraging coins as a kid to launching Baupost in 1982 — and reflects on his decades-long investment philosophy. They explore timeless principles of market inefficiencies, the importance of temperament, specialization versus generalization, the role of patient capital, and the challenges and opportunities ahead for investors in today’s world. Seth also opens up about technology trends like AI, the evolving market structure, and the enduring lessons from Graham & Dodd — and much more!

 

Key Topics:

• Seth’s early entrepreneurial ventures and coin arbitrage (2:10)
• Lessons from working at Mutual Shares with Max Heine and Michael Price (4:12)
• Starting Baupost and managing the founding families’ wealth (10:53)
• Core principles behind value investing and market inefficiencies (13:06)
• The impact of indexing, ETFs, and passive investing trends (16:42)
• Generalists vs. specialists in investment research (19:06)
• How Baupost evaluates opportunities across asset classes (21:13)
• Why value investing combines a contrarian streak with a calculator (23:51)
• The importance of meeting management teams and assessing intent (26:44)
• Building and educating a long-term oriented client base (29:06)
• Managing behavioral biases and fostering the right temperament (31:21)
• Current market outlook and where Baupost sees value today (34:03)
• How AI is changing research and efficiency at Baupost (36:54)
• Broader applications of the “Moneyball” mindset (40:13)
• The difference between an analyst and a portfolio manager (44:01)
• Seth’s views on risk, business ethics, and business education (45:50)
• What worries Seth about the future — and what excites him (48:11)
• Book recommendations from Seth Klarman (51:42)
• And much more!

 

Mentioned in this Episode:

• Margin of Safety by Seth Klarman
• Security Analysis by Benjamin Graham & David Dodd (Seventh Edition)
• Moneyball by Michael Lewis
• Lost & Found by Kathryn Schulz
• Being Wrong by Kathryn Schulz
• The Light Eaters by Zoë Schlanger

 

Thanks for Listening!

 

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