Fortune | FORTUNE 前天 03:06
Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway and Zillow say mortgage rates can’t fall enough for Americans to afford a home
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受疫情期间低利率影响,购房者习惯了负担得起的抵押贷款。然而,近期抵押贷款利率飙升至8%,尽管有所回落,但仍处于6.75%的高位。专家认为,利率大幅下降以恢复住房可负担性不现实。高利率不仅阻碍了新买家入市,也导致许多现有房主因不愿放弃低利率而选择不出售房屋,即所谓的“金手铐”效应。这加剧了市场库存不足的问题,房屋销售周期拉长,尽管整体库存有所上升,但可负担性依然是主要障碍,工资增长未能跟上房价涨幅,预示着住房可负担性危机可能持续存在,部分首次购房者转向长期租赁或合租模式,住房市场正在重塑。

高抵押贷款利率是当前住房市场的主要障碍,当前30年期固定抵押贷款利率为6.75%,远高于疫情期间的3%以下水平。专家预测利率短期内不会有大幅下降,且要达到使典型房屋对平均买家可负担的4.43%水平更是“不现实”。

“金手铐”效应(锁定抵押贷款利率)阻碍了房屋销售。许多房主不愿出售房屋并放弃他们已锁定的低抵押贷款利率,即使他们想搬家,因为购买新房的利率会显著提高,高房价也无法弥补利率成本的增加。

市场库存不足加剧,未售房屋数量上升,已达到五年来的最高水平,房屋在市场上停留的时间也比去年长近三周。这表明卖家仍然固守疫情时期的价格预期,而市场信号却并非如此。

尽管库存有所增加,但高房价和高抵押贷款利率仍然是潜在购房者的主要障碍。自疫情以来,房价已上涨超过50%,而工资增长未能同步,使得购房更加难以负担。如果利率、库存和工资增长等因素不发生改变,住房可负担性危机将持续。

住房可负担性危机正在重塑住房市场。部分首次购房者转向长期租赁或合租模式,或依赖家庭支持来进入市场,这标志着住房阶梯正在发生变化。好消息是,房价增长似乎正在放缓,但整体 affordability 仍然紧张,库存受限。

During the pandemic, home buyers got accustomed to sub-3% mortgage rates, which made purchasing a house feel more achievable. But in the past couple of years, buyers have had no such luck.

In late 2023, mortgage rates peaked at 8%. While they’ve let up some, today’s 30-year fixed mortgage rate is 6.75%, according to Mortgage News Daily. Economists and real-estate groups have warned they don’t see that figure budging much in the near future. And to make matters worse, some have said the mortgage rate it would take to make homes feel affordable again isn’t achievable. 

On Tuesday, Zillow economic analyst Anushna Prakash reported mortgage rates would need to drop to 4.43% for a typical home to be affordable to an average buyer. But “that kind of a rate decline is currently unrealistic,” Prakash wrote. Meanwhile, not even a 0% interest rate would make a typical home affordable in New York, Los Angeles, Miami, San Francisco, San Diego, or San Jose, she added. 

Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices also said in an early July report that mortgage rates are one of the main deterrents for both home buyers and sellers.

“Many homeowners are reluctant [to] put their homes on the market and give up the low mortgage rates they already have,” according to Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices. “To them, high price gains won’t mitigate their ability to pay more for another home at significantly higher interest rates.”

This issue is also referred to as golden handcuffs—or the locked-in mortgage rate effect. The idea is that current homeowners have no incentive to put their homes on the market, even if they want to move, because they’d forgo a much lower mortgage rate they had locked in years ago. 

This causes a litany of other problems in the housing market, namely inventory.

The number of unsold existing homes for sale rose 9% month-over-month in April, according to Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices, to 1.45 million; that’s equal to 4.4 months’ supply on hand at the current sales pace and the highest level in five years. That’s shown itself in more sellers delisting their properties after sitting on the market for longer than expected.

“Homes are sitting on the market nearly three weeks longer than last year,” Realtor.com Senior Economist Jake Krimmel recently told Fortune. “That’s a sign of sellers still anchored to pandemic-era prices even though the market is telling them otherwise.” 

That doesn’t mean there’s an influx of housing in the U.S.; in fact, we’re still short millions of units. It just means there aren’t enough people who can actually afford to buy a home.

The factors influencing housing affordability

Although inventory levels are increasing, home prices and mortgage rates continue to be a roadblock for potential home buyers. Mortgage rates have remained “stubbornly high,” Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices said, deterring new buyers from the market.

According to a Realtor.com report published Thursday, the typical home spent 58 days on the market in July, which is 7 days longer than the same time last year. 

Mortgage rates are certainly a factor among buyers when deciding to make an offer, and home prices are also up more than 50% since the onset of the pandemic, according to the U.S. Case-Shiller Home Price Index.

All the while, wages haven’t grown at the same pace as home appreciation, making buying a house feel even more unaffordable. And if nothing changes like mortgage rates, inventory, or wage growth, it’s likely the housing affordability crisis in the U.S. will persist, Alexandra Gupta, a real-estate broker with The Corcoran Group, told Fortune.

“Some first-time buyers are turning to long-term renting or even co-living models because the idea of owning a home has become so out of reach. Others are relying more on family support to get into the market,” Gupta said. “We’re seeing a reshaping of the housing ladder.”

The small glimmer of hope, though, is home price growth appears to be slowing, according to the Case-Shiller indices.

“With affordability still stretched and inventory constrained, national home prices are holding steady, but barely,” Nicholas Godec, head of fixed-income tradables and commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said in a statement.

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抵押贷款利率 住房可负担性 房地产市场 金手铐效应 住房库存
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