cs.AI updates on arXiv.org 07月30日 12:12
Towards Locally Deployable Fine-Tuned Causal Large Language Models for Mode Choice Behaviour
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本文研究了开源、本地部署的因果大型语言模型(LLM)在出行模式选择预测中的应用,并介绍了针对此任务定制的LiTransMC模型。通过对比11个LLM模型,LiTransMC在预测准确性和可解释性方面均表现优异,为交通研究和政策制定提供了新的可能性。

arXiv:2507.21432v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: This study investigates the adoption of open-access, locally deployable causal large language models (LLMs) for travel mode choice prediction and introduces LiTransMC, the first fine-tuned causal LLM developed for this task. We systematically benchmark eleven LLMs (1-12B parameters) across three stated and revealed preference datasets, testing 396 configurations and generating over 79,000 synthetic commuter predictions. Beyond predictive accuracy, we evaluate models generated reasoning using BERTopic for topic modelling and a novel Explanation Strength Index, providing the first structured analysis of how LLMs articulate decision factors in alignment with behavioural theory. LiTransMC, fine-tuned using parameter efficient and loss masking strategy, achieved a weighted F1 score of 0.6845 and a Jensen-Shannon Divergence of 0.000245, surpassing both untuned local models and larger proprietary systems, including GPT-4o with advanced persona inference and embedding-based loading, while also outperforming classical mode choice methods such as discrete choice models and machine learning classifiers for the same dataset. This dual improvement, i.e., high instant-level accuracy and near-perfect distributional calibration, demonstrates the feasibility of creating specialist, locally deployable LLMs that integrate prediction and interpretability. Through combining structured behavioural prediction with natural language reasoning, this work unlocks the potential for conversational, multi-task transport models capable of supporting agent-based simulations, policy testing, and behavioural insight generation. These findings establish a pathway for transforming general purpose LLMs into specialized, explainable tools for transportation research and policy formulation, while maintaining privacy, reducing cost, and broadening access through local deployment.

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因果LLM 出行模式预测 LiTransMC 交通研究 政策制定
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