Fortune | FORTUNE 前天 03:58
‘Not dire, not amazing, more meh’: Job market cools as quits plummet in stagnant labor picture
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美国就业市场正呈现降温迹象。上个月,雇主发布的职位空缺数量降至740万个,低于前一个月的770万个,也符合市场预期。尽管裁员人数变化不大,但选择辞职的员工数量降至去年12月以来的最低点,这通常表明人们对未来就业前景的信心有所减弱。招聘活动也较前一个月有所放缓。经济学家认为,美国就业市场今年以来动能有所减弱,部分原因在于美联储的加息以及此前贸易政策带来的不确定性影响了企业的招聘决策。即将发布的七月份就业数据预计将显示失业率小幅上升,新增就业岗位数量也将低于前月。

📉 职位空缺数量下降:最新数据显示,上个月美国雇主发布的职位空缺降至740万个,低于前一个月的770万个,表明劳动力市场需求有所放缓。

📉 辞职人数降至低点:选择辞职的员工数量降至去年12月以来的最低水平,这通常反映出人们对跳槽获得更好机会的信心不足,或者认为当前的工作相对稳定。

📉 招聘活动减弱:除了职位空缺减少,招聘人数也从前一个月有所下降,这进一步印证了就业市场招聘意愿的减弱。

📉 经济放缓的潜在原因:文章指出,美国就业市场动能减弱可能与美联储持续的加息政策以及贸易政策带来的不确定性有关,这些因素影响了企业的招聘和投资决策。

📉 就业增长放缓趋势:今年以来,经济每月新增就业岗位数量明显低于前几年,显示出整体就业增长的放缓趋势,尽管裁员率仍低于疫情前水平。

Employers posted 7.4 million job vacancies last month, a sign that the American job market continues to cool.

The Labor Department reported Tuesday that job openings in June were down from 7.7 million in May and were about what forecasters had expected.

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) showed that layoffs were little changed in June. But the number of people quitting their jobs — a sign of confidence in their prospects elsewhere — dropped last month to the lowest level since December. Hiring also fell from May.

Posting on Bluesky, Glassdoor economist Daniel Zhao wrote that the report “shows softer figures with hires and quits rates still sluggish. Not dire, not amazing, more meh.”

The U.S. job market has lost momentum this year, partly because of the lingering effects of 11 interest rate hikes by the inflation fighters at the Federal Reserve in 2022 and 2023 and partly because President Donald Trump’s trade wars have created uncertainty that is paralyzing managers making hiring decisions.

On Friday, the Labor Department will put out unemployment and hiring numbers for July. They are expected to show that the unemployment rate ticked up to a still-low 4.2% in July from 4.1% in June. Businesses, government agencies and nonprofits are expected to have added 115,000 jobs in July, down from 147,000 in June, according to a survey of economists by the data firm FactSet.

The seemingly decent June hiring numbers were weaker than they appeared. Private payrolls rose just 74,000 in June, fewest since last October when hurricanes disrupted job sites. And state and local governments added nearly 64,000 education jobs in June – a total that economists suspect was inflated by seasonal quirks around the end of the school year.

So far this year, the economy has been generating 130,000 jobs a month, down from 168,000 last year and an average 400,000 a month from 2021 through 2023 during the recovery from COVID-19 lockdowns.

Employers are less likely to hire, but they’re also not letting workers go either. Layoffs remain below pre-pandemic levels.

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美国就业市场 职位空缺 劳动力市场 经济指标 招聘
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