Fortune | FORTUNE 9小时前
Housing market ‘purgatory’ for existing home sales as activity falls to lowest level in 9 months
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2025年6月,美国二手房销售量大幅下滑,创下九个月来的最低水平。高企的抵押贷款利率(接近7%)和创纪录的房价持续抑制了购房需求。尽管库存有所增加,但价格的持续上涨和潜在买家对利率的担忧,使得市场面临严峻的负担能力挑战。分析人士认为,除非抵押贷款利率下降,否则住房市场将继续处于“炼狱”状态,影响买卖双方的交易意愿。同时,新房建设的滞后也加剧了供应不足的问题,对首次购房者尤其不利。

📉 **销售量大幅下滑**: 2025年6月,美国二手房销售年化季调后为393万套,较前月下降2.7%,超出预期,创下九个月新低。这主要归因于持续高企的抵押贷款利率和创纪录的房价,削弱了潜在买家的购买力。

💰 **房价屡创新高**: 尽管销售疲软,美国二手房价格却逆势上涨,6月 mediana 价格达到435,300美元,同比上涨2%,已连续24个月保持年度增长。NAR首席经济学家认为这反映了美国房主财富的持续增长。

🔄 **库存缓慢回升但供需仍不匹配**: 6月底,待售房屋库存达到153万套,同比大幅增长近16%,为多年来最高,但仍低于月度销售需求。库存月数供应量为4.7个月,接近疫情前水平,但与前一年相比有所增加。

🏠 **市场挑战与前景**: 高房价和高利率是当前住房市场的核心障碍。若抵押贷款利率能降至6%,预计将有更多租房者转向购房,并带动现有房主换房。若下半年利率下降,配合强劲的收入增长和就业市场,预计销量将有所回升。

📊 **区域差异与销售结构**: 不同地区销售表现不一,东北、中西部和南部销售下滑,西部有所回升。独栋住宅销售下滑3%,而公寓和合作公寓销售持平于上月但同比下降5.3%。

U.S. existing home sales fell sharply in June 2025, dropping to their lowest level in nine months as elevated mortgage rates and record-high prices continued to sideline many prospective buyers. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing home sales slipped 2.7% from May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.93 million transactions, exceeding analysts’ expectations for a more modest decline. Compared to last year, sales were flat overall, with concentrated declines in several regions.

The housing market is traditionally busiest in spring, but this year’s key buying season proved lackluster. The month-over-month decline largely reflected affordability challenges: mortgage rates hovered close to 7% throughout April and May, when most June closings would have entered contract.

“Existing home sales have been in purgatory since mortgage rates spiked in 2022,” Lance Lambert, editor-in-chief of ResiClub, told Fortune Intelligence. “Some of that’s because strained affordability n many markets is making it harder for sellers to find a buyer at their asking price—which is also why active inventory is rising. And some of it is because many would-be home sellers, who’d like to sell and buy something else, either can’t afford that next payment or don’t want to part with their lower mortgage rate and payment. No matter how you look at it, this is an unhealthy housing market.”

Skyhigh prices

On a nationwide basis, home prices climbed to an all-time high, underpinning the market’s affordability squeeze. The median price for existing homes reached $435,300 in June, up 2% from the same month a year earlier and marking the 24th consecutive month of yearly price gains. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun sounded an optimistic tone about this staggering climb: “The record high median home price highlights how American homeowners’ wealth continues to grow—a benefit of homeownership. The average homeowner’s wealth has expanded by $140,900 over the past five years.”

Despite weak sales, inventory is slowly rebuilding: 1.53 million homes were listed for sale at the end of June, up nearly 16% from a year ago—the highest level in years—though still 0.6% lower than in May due to seasonal factors. This puts the market’s unsold inventory at a 4.7-month supply, matching pre-pandemic norms and up from 4.0 months a year prior.

Regional dynamics varied. Sales dropped in the Northeast, Midwest, and South, but edged higher in the West, with year-over-year changes mirroring these splits. Single-family home sales slipped 3%, while sales of condominiums and co-ops were stable compared to May but down 5.3% against June 2024.

One positive for buyers: more supply and slightly longer time on market. Realtor.com reported that active inventory for June rose for the 20th straight month, climbing nearly 29% year over year to 1.08 million homes, and the average home spent 53 days on market, five days longer than a year earlier. However, these gains are offset by persistent undersupply when compared to the pre-pandemic market, and price cuts became more common, with nearly 21% of listings experiencing downward adjustments—the highest June share since 2016.

“Multiple years of undersupply are driving the record high home price,” Yun said, noting that construction continues to lag population growth and is holding back first-time buyers. “If the average mortgage rates were to decline to 6%, our scenario analysis suggests an additional 160,000 renters would become first-time homeowners and a boost in activity from existing homeowners,” Yun added.

If mortgage rates decrease in the second half of this year, Yun said, he expects home sales to increase across the country due to strong income growth, healthy inventory, and a record-high number of jobs.” For now, though, it’s a familiar story of peak prices and affordability the main obstacle for would-be homebuyers in the U.S.

For this story, Fortune used generative AI to help with an initial draft. An editor verified the accuracy of the information before publishing. 

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美国房市 抵押贷款利率 房价 房屋销售 房地产市场
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