StoneX全球宏观策略主管Vincent Deluard预测，美国股市可能在夏季迎来一次短暂而剧烈的下跌，主要受特朗普关税政策、通胀压力导致降息延迟以及市场上涨宽度不足等因素影响。他指出，外国投资者对“特朗普的怪癖”感到担忧，但大型科技股的吸引力将促使抛售是短暂的。然而，Deluard认为，由于经济转向无形资产、持续的财政刺激以及人口结构变化，经济衰退已被“取消”，美国经济在过去16年中仅有1%的时间处于衰退状态，这与19世纪末20世纪初的情况大相径庭。他认为，未来两年股市可能面临几次调整，但整体经济衰退的可能性不大。

📈 股市短期回调风险：分析师Vincent Deluard预计，受特朗普关税政策的潜在影响、通胀压力可能导致美联储推迟降息，以及近期市场上涨的宽度有限等因素影响，美国股市可能在7月下旬或8月初经历一次“残酷但短暂”的抛售。他特别提到，外国投资者对特朗普的关税政策和美国经济敞口感到担忧，但大型科技股的吸引力可能限制回调的持续时间。

📉 长期衰退“已取消”：Deluard认为，与过去相比，美国经济的衰退风险已大大降低。他解释说，这得益于经济结构从工业转向波动性较小的服务业，政府在医疗保健和社会支持项目上的支出增加，这些被视为“永久性经济刺激”，以及政策制定者倾向于采取“不惜一切代价”来避免衰退的措施。他指出，美国经济在过去16年中仅有1%的时间处于衰退状态，远低于19世纪末20世纪初的水平。

🏠 房地产市场展望：Deluard预测，由于负担能力差、供应增加以及抵押贷款利率高企且粘性大，美国房地产市场将继续疲软。他预计未来两年房价将“降温但不会崩盘”，这受到建筑成本上升、收入增长和低失业率的支撑。

🏦 货币政策与通胀目标：Deluard还提到，在持续的赤字支出环境下，美联储可能需要将通胀目标从2%提高到4%，以应对无法实现更低目标的现实。他认为，如果实现这一目标，对股市而言将是“相当积极的”，因为它将支持更高的企业盈利和更低的利率。

StoneX's head of global macro strategy told BI that he expects stocks to slump soon.Vincent Deluard said Trump's tariffs and delayed rate cuts could hit stocks.He said "recessions have been canceled" because of the economy's resilience and government spending.

The record-breaking stock market will tumble before September, but a recession effectively is "canceled," a leading strategist told Business Insider.

"I expect US stocks to experience a sharp but brief correction in the summer," Vincent Deluard, the director of global macro strategy at StoneX, a financial services network, told BI in an interview.

In a recent note, Deluard raised the prospect of a "brutal but brief" sell-off in late July or early August. He based the call on Donald Trump's tariff-negotiation period ending on August 1 and potentially spooking markets; the likelihood of further interest-rate cuts being delayed because of accelerating inflation and a tightening labor market; and the narrow breadth of the latest market rally, he said, adding that narrow rallies often lead to a correction within a month.

He added in his note that foreign investors were anxious about "Trump's antics" with tariffs, the deficit, and their exposure to the US economy. He predicted selloffs would be short-lived as overseas buyers can't resist Big Tech stocks given their dominant market positions and central roles in the AI revolution.

Deluard told BI he expects "several steep corrections" in stocks over the next two years due to "erratic policymaking, pressure from rising long-term bond yields, and selling from foreign investors."

'Recessions have been canceled'

The macro specialist told BI there was a risk of a "brief stagflationary slowdown," but he ruled out a prolonged downturn as "recessions have been canceled by the shift to intangible assets, permanent stimulus, and demographics."

Deluard spelled out his thinking in a note in May.

He highlighted that the US economy has spent just 1% of the past 16 years in recession, down from around 40% of each decade between the 1860s and 1930s.

He added that the main changes were a transition from an industrial economy to a less volatile services one, big rises in government spending on healthcare and social support programs for an ageing population that have acted as a "permanent economic stimulus," and policymakers adopting a "whatever it takes" approach to avoiding recessions.

Deluard told BI that the Federal Reserve might have to raise its inflation target from 2% to as much as 4%, because officials will realize they can't aim lower in an era of sustained deficit spending. He said that that would be "quite positive" for stocks, as it would support higher corporate earnings and lower interest rates.

Deluard, an adjunct professor of finance at Saint Mary's College of California, told BI the housing market would likely remain weak due to "poor affordability, growing supply, and high and sticky mortgage rates."

He suggested house prices would "cool down but not crater" over the next two years, buoyed by higher construction costs, rising incomes, and low unemployment.