Fortune | FORTUNE 07月18日 03:03
Jamie Dimon bought his first stock at 14. His billion-dollar management philosophy: ‘Don’t blow up’
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摩根大通CEO杰米·戴蒙分享了其在华尔街的早期经历,14岁首次投资便遭遇市场暴跌,这让他深刻理解了市场的残酷性。他将这种经验转化为“别搞砸”的核心理念,强调在市场狂热时保持谨慎,并为“极端事件”进行压力测试。戴蒙将此理念应用于摩根大通的“堡垒式资产负债表”战略,注重高流动性、保守的资本水平和充足的准备金,优先考虑长期生存而非短期利润。这种风险厌恶策略使摩根大通在历次金融危机中都安然无恙,并持续保持行业领先地位。

💰 早期市场经历奠定风险意识:杰米·戴蒙在14岁首次投资时,便经历了市场45%的暴跌,这一惨痛经历让他深刻认识到市场的波动性和潜在的“丑陋”一面,并塑造了他多年来对风险的警惕态度。

🛡️ “别搞砸”的核心理念:戴蒙的投资哲学核心是“Don’t blow up”,即在别人盲目乐观时保持谨慎,避免因过度兴奋而导致“爆炸”。他强调要对“肥尾风险”(即极不可能发生的灾难性事件)进行压力测试,因为历史证明这些事件确实会发生。

🏦 “堡垒式资产负债表”战略:戴蒙将风险管理理念具体化为摩根大通的“堡垒式资产负债表”战略,要求公司保持高流动性、保守的资本水平和充足的准备金,甚至超出监管要求。他宁愿牺牲短期利润,以换取长期的生存和可持续发展。

🚀 风险规避与持续成功:尽管奉行风险规避,戴蒙的策略并未限制摩根大通的野心。自2008年以来,摩根大通是唯一一家在历次危机中都安然无恙的主要华尔街银行,并在全球银行业中持续占据主导地位,这归功于其不懈的准备和对从众心理及危险乐观主义的拒绝。

📉 长期生存优先于短期盈利:戴蒙的策略是优先考虑长期生存,而非最大化短期利润。即便在繁荣时期,摩根大通的表现可能不如其他风险更高的竞争对手,但他接受这种权衡,因为“在风暴过后,你依然还在”。

Early lessons from Wall Street’s roller coaster

Dimon’s introduction to the world of markets was guided by his father, a stockbroker. At just age 14 in 1972, Dimon purchased his first stock, only to watch the market nosedive by 45% within two years. “All the limousines on Wall Street were gone. Restaurants were being closed. Markets move, violently,” Dimon told the podcast audience, recounting the searing early lesson that shaped his vigilant approach to risk that would last for decades.

The lesson was simple, but unforgiving: markets can, and will, get ugly. Over the next decades, Dimon would witness—and survive—a parade of financial crises: the recession of 1982, the 1987 Black Monday crash, early-1990s real estate busts that nearly toppled major banks, the fallout of the dot-com bubble, and, most notably, the 2008 global financial crisis.

‘Don’t blow up’: the essential rule

If there is a Dimon mantra, it is don’t blow up, by which he means you should try to be cautious when everyone else is excited about something. They are going to explode eventually from their excitement, he explained, and it’s your job to work to prevent that.

“There’s always this ecosystem—everyone’s doing it, everyone’s okay, this time is different. History teaches you a lot,” Dimon said. He insists that his team stress test for “the fat tails”—the catastrophic events most believe will never occur. Whenever he hears someone argue that a market event is too rare to matter, he said he points to past crashes and insists that it can and will happen, even often.

This philosophy is not just words—Dimon operationalized it at JPMorgan Chase as the “fortress balance sheet” strategy. He demands high liquidity, conservative capital levels, and robust reserves long before regulatory minimums require them. Dimon even jokes that he’s “as conservative an accountant as you can find”—eschewing upfront profits for sustainable margins, deliberately structuring incentives to avoid dangerous risk-taking, and constantly reviewing compensation plans for unintended consequences.

“Leverage kills you. Aggressive accounting can kill you,” Dimon said. His approach prioritizes long-term survival over short-term profit maximization, even when it means JPMorgan’s results lag riskier competitors in boom years. That’s a trade-off he accepts gladly: “You might do worse than others in the good times, but you’re still there when the dust clears.”

No apologies for playing defense

Crucially, this risk aversion has not limited Dimon’s ambition—JPMorgan Chase is the only major Wall Street bank to emerge from every crisis since 2008 relatively unscathed, consistently dominating global banking while others faltered. Dimon attributes this not to luck but to relentless preparation and a refusal to succumb to herd mentality or dangerous optimism.

Dimon’s philosophy was forged in his adolescence, shaped by his father’s old-school lessons, and battle-tested in every calamity since. In a world that prizes bold bets and outsized returns, his advice echoes as a warning—and a model for enduring success: “Don’t blow up.”

JPMorgan declined to comment beyond Dimon’s remarks on the podcast.

For this story, Fortune used generative AI to help with an initial draft. An editor verified the accuracy of the information before publishing. 

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杰米·戴蒙 华尔街 风险管理 摩根大通 金融危机
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