本文介绍了EA论坛的“关键问题项目”，旨在通过系统性的方法，识别最具影响力的未知问题，并量化评估研究对这些问题的影响。该项目与多个组织合作，从全球影响导向的组织中收集关键问题，通过专家评估、预测市场和综合报告等方式，更新对这些问题的认知。项目强调开放科学和侦察心态，目标是改进对研究质量和影响的评估，促进决策制定。

💡项目流程：该项目包含多个关键步骤，首先从全球影响导向的组织中收集“目标问题”，然后筛选、完善这些问题，使其更精确且与决策相关。接下来，通过预测市场等方式收集利益相关者和专家的观点，并对相关研究进行评估，最终形成综合报告，量化对这些问题的共识性认知。

🌱试点问题：项目已初步确定了四个试点问题，包括植物基产品替代动物产品的福利影响、DALY/WELLBY互换性、衡量幸福感/WELLBY的可靠性，以及细胞培养肉的成本和价格。这些问题均与合作组织的优先事项相关。

🧐项目方法论：该项目采用了结构化的贝叶斯方法，用于识别最具影响力的未知因素，并收集、整合和衡量认知的变化。项目强调开放科学和侦察心态，委托专家提供透明的批判、评级和预测，以支持决策和价值判断。

Published on July 8, 2025 3:55 PM GMT

This EA Forum sequence explains The Unjournal's Pivotal Questions Project, and tracks our progress. (Unjournal: in a nutshell.)   

The "Pivotal Questions" project process (piloting): 

Elicit ‘target questions’ from global-impact-focused organizations, aiming at high VOI for funding and policy choicesSelect the most useful target questions, get feedback, and collaboratively refine them to make them more precise, tractable, and decision-relevantElicit stakeholder and expert beliefs over these questions, including through (Metaculus/Minitaculus) prediction marketsSource and prioritize research informing the target questionsCommission expert evaluations of this research, focused on how the research informs the target questions, and eliciting beliefs over theseGet feedback from research authors and the target organization(s), and updated beliefs about the target questions Prepare a ‘synthesis report’, quantifying our ~consensus updated beliefs about the questions, and resolving the Minitaculus marketsComplete and publish the ‘target question evaluation packages’
 

Based on conversations with a range of organizations (see list here), we sketched 19 potential pivotal questions (see here). We’ve prioritized four of these for our pilot, broadly labeled:

“How do plant-based products substitute for animal products (re their welfare footprint)?”; suggested by Animal Charity Evaluators (post coming soon)DALY/WELLBY interconvertibility; suggested by Founders Pledge Measuring Well-being/WELLBY reliability; suggested by Founders PledgeCell-cultured meat cost and price; internally suggested (but linked to stated priorities of several organizations; see “Decision-Relevance” below)

I think LW-ers might be interested in this project, and I'd greatly value your feedback, because 

It connects to our systematic approach to evaluating research quality and impact, a project of building better epistemic institutions in EA, academia and beyond. We're laying out a structured, Bayesian-style approach to identifying the most consequential unknowns, and eliciting, aggregating and measuring changes in beliefs (e.g., on Metaculus and using Metaculus tools), and connecting these to decisionmaking and valueWe emphasize an open-science, scout-mindset approach, and commission and pay experts to provide reasoning-transparent critique, ratings, predictions, and calibrated judgements. 

 

 

Discuss