Fortune | FORTUNE 07月02日
Trump’s tariff pause expires next week. Here’s how well Asian governments have been doing in negotiations with Washington
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文章探讨了美国与亚洲多个国家(日本、韩国、印度、东南亚国家)的贸易谈判进展,重点关注了即将到来的关税期限。文章指出,美国此前对全球施加关税,后暂停谈判,给各国三个月时间协商。目前,与英国和中国的贸易协议已达成,但与日本等国的谈判面临挑战,尤其是汽车关税问题。韩国、印度和东南亚国家也在积极寻求达成协议,但进展不一。文章还提到了各国的立场、面临的关税以及谈判中的关键问题。

🚗 日本面临的最大障碍是美国对汽车征收25%的关税,日本汽车产业对国家GDP贡献巨大,且是美国最大的汽车出口市场。日本首席谈判代表表示,无法接受汽车关税,谈判陷入僵局。

🇰🇷 韩国希望免除所有美国关税,包括25%的出口关税、汽车关税和钢铁铝关税。韩国新任总统李在明将贸易视为首要挑战,并表示“ rising protectionism”是生存威胁。

🇮🇳 印度与美国最初对达成贸易协议表示乐观,但目前尚未宣布协议。印度官员对降低农产品关税持谨慎态度,农业是该国最大的就业部门。同时,印度也希望受益于供应链从中国转移。

🌏 东南亚国家面临高额关税,部分国家已承诺增加对美国商品的进口以寻求达成协议。越南、印度尼西亚和马来西亚表示乐观,但泰国对谈判前景不太确定,希望延长谈判期限。

On Tuesday, Trump told reporters that he wasn’t interested in extending the deadline to allow for more time to negotiate, and will soon be sending letters announcing tariff rates “to a lot of countries.”

Still, administration officials have been publicly hopeful that they can unveil more deals in the coming days, with U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick suggesting last week that there were 10 deals ready to go. (He did not specify which countries were ready to sign a trade deal.) Kevin Hassett, director of the National Economic Council, recently said that trading deals may be announced after the July 4 holiday.

On April 2, Trump slapped steep tariffs on the rest of the world, then paused them a week later to allow time for negotiations. U.S. trading partners have spent the past three months in frantic negotiations trying to get these tariffs reduced—but as of now, have little to show for it.

So far, the administration has agreed a trade deal with the UK and a “trade agreement” with China (which merely brings tariffs back down to their “Liberation Day” levels)

With just a week to go until tariffs return, here’s where things stand in Asia’s trade negotiations with Washington.

Japan 

Talks between the U.S. and Japan have hit a roadblock: Trump’s imposition of a steep 25% tariff on cars. Japan’s car industry is the fourth-largest in the world, contributing nearly 3% of the country’s GDP and employing one in eight people. The U.S. is Japan’s largest car export market, buying up a third of its total production.  

Auto tariffs are “not something we can accept,” Japan’s chief negotiator Ryosei Akazawa told reporters last Thursday. With no resolution on auto tariffs, Akazawa has said that negotiations “remained in a fog.”

Japan also faces a 24% tariff on all its exports, as well as a 50% tax on steel and aluminum.  

Still, Trump seems particularly annoyed about Japan and its long-standing trade surplus with the U.S. On Sunday, Trump complained that the one-sided auto trade was “not fair,” suggesting Japan buy more U.S. oil to close the deficit gap. He repeated his complaints on Tuesday, calling Japan “tough” and “spoiled” to reporters.

South Korea  

South Korea hopes to be exempt from all U.S. tariffs, including the 25% reciprocal tariff on its exports, as well as the 25% tariffs on cars and the 50% tariff on steel and aluminum.  

Korea’s lead trade negotiator, Yeo Han-Koo, met with Lutnick and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer to start negotiations last Monday. All parties affirmed their commitment to reaching a deal soon, and acting U.S. ambassador to South Korea, Joseph Yun, said last week that a new Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between South Korea and the U.S. may be in the works.  

Trade is the first major challenge to be faced by newly elected South Korea president, Lee Jae-myung, who took office earlier this month after a snap election. In his inaugural address, Lee called “rising protectionism” a “threat to our very survival.”  

Korean negotiators don’t appear optimistic that they’ll meet the July 9 deadline, with a senior Korean official telling reporters on Monday that Seoul will try to seek an extension.

India  

Both the U.S. and India had expressed initial optimism that they’d be able to reach a deal on trade, with India being one of the first countries to begin negotiations with the U.S. in April. Yet, as of now, no agreement has been announced. India currently faces a 26% “reciprocal” tariff on its exports to the U.S. 

Indian officials are reportedly hesitant to lower their own tariffs on agricultural products, which would allow U.S. products into the market. Agriculture is India’s largest employment sector, with almost half of the population working in farming. 

India also hopes to benefit from supply chains moving out of China. Companies like Apple and Foxconn are investing in Indian factories, both to diversify their supply chains and potentially avoid U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods. Yet Trump has criticized Apple’s attempts to make iPhones in India, instead demanding smartphones be made in the U.S.  

Still, the U.S. president has said he remains optimistic that a deal is coming. On Tuesday, he suggested that the U.S. will soon be “able to go in and compete” in India. If New Delhi opens up its market, “we’re going to have a deal for much less tariffs,” he said.

Southeast Asia 

Southeast Asian countries got a number of the steepest tariffs on April 2, with some reaching as high as 49%. Several countries in the region rely on U.S. exports for growth, spurring a rush by leaders to offer concessions, promising to increase their own imports of U.S. goods to try to get a deal with Washington. 

Vietnam Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh said last week that he was confident a “positive” trade deal could be made with the U.S. before the deadline. (Vietnam currently faces a 46% tariff on its U.S.-bound exports.)

Indonesia and Malaysia—which face 32% and 24% tariff rates respectively—have likewise expressed optimism that they can conclude negotiations before the tariff pause expires next week.  

Thailand is less certain about the status of its trade negotiations. Thailand’s finance minister, Pichai Chunhavajira, arrived in the U.S. on Monday to begin talks in person, and has said that he hopes these talks will be extended past July 9.  

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贸易谈判 关税 亚洲 美国
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