少点错误 03月29日 07:27
Singularity Survival Guide: A Bayesian Guide for Navigating the Pre-Singularity Period
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本文介绍了“奇点生存指南”V1,旨在帮助读者在通往AGI(通用人工智能)和ASI(超级人工智能)的道路上提高生存几率。指南侧重于识别近期内最高概率的可预防死亡/受伤原因,提供高投资回报率的风险缓解策略,并概述应对潜在社会不稳定的准备措施。文章强调了车祸、药物过量、自杀、暴力、感染、心血管疾病等主要风险,并提出了相应的缓解措施。此外,文章还提倡建立应急计划,储备食物和水,增强财务韧性,以及建立社区支持系统。

🚗 车祸与行人事故:这是人们日常生活中低估的首要威胁。缓解措施包括减少驾车频率、选择安全评级高的车辆、避免高风险驾驶时段、驾车时禁用手机、杜绝酒驾,以及在行人附近小心行走。

💊 药物过量:这是一个影响所有人群的风险,芬太尼污染在68%的过量案例中出现。有效缓解措施包括检测物质、切勿混合使用镇静剂、备有纳洛酮、使用伙伴系统,以及从小剂量开始以评估效力。

🧠 自杀:这是一种可预防的悲剧,有明显的预警信号。缓解策略包括限制获取致命手段、积极治疗心理健康问题、保持强大的社会联系、在情绪危机期间限制物质使用,以及制定安全计划。

💥 暴力与蓄意伤害:情境意识可以拯救生命。关键预防措施包括保护措施、在出现身体虐待迹象时立即退出不安全关系、培养情境意识、缓和冲突,以及避开高风险场所。

🦠 感染:从呼吸道疾病到潜在的疫情。缓解措施包括接种疫苗、使用HEPA过滤器、维持口罩和必需品的供应,以及及时治疗恶化的感染。

❤️ 心脏病和中风:高投资回报的预防措施包括戒烟、控制血压、地中海饮食、定期锻炼、适当的药物治疗、体重管理,以及了解预警信号。

Published on March 28, 2025 11:21 PM GMT

We may be on the direct path to AGI and then ASI - the singularity could happen within the next 5-20 years. If you survive to reach it, the potential upside is immense, daily life could become paradise.

With such high stakes, ensuring personal survival until the singularity should be a top priority for yourself and those you care about.

I've created V1 of the Singularity Survival Guide, an evidence-based resource focused on:

    Identifying the highest-probability preventable causes of death/injury in the near termProviding the highest-ROI risk mitigation strategiesOutlining preparations for potential societal instabilityPresenting information in a shareable, memetic format

Top Risks to Mitigate

🚗 Car & Pedestrian Accidents

The #1 daily threat most people underestimate. Key mitigations include driving less when possible, choosing vehicles with top safety ratings, avoiding high-risk driving times, making phones inaccessible while driving, never driving impaired, and walking near cars carefully.

💊 Drug Overdose

A risk crossing all demographics with fentanyl contamination involved in 68% of overdoses. Effective mitigations include testing substances, never mixing depressants, keeping naloxone available, using a buddy system, and starting with small amounts to gauge potency.

🧠 Suicide

A preventable tragedy with clear warning signs. Mitigation strategies include restricting access to lethal means, treating mental health conditions proactively, maintaining strong social connections, limiting substance use during emotional crises, and creating safety plans.

💥️ Violence & Intentional Harm

Situational awareness can save your life. Key preventions include protection measures, exiting unsafe relationships at the first sign of physical abuse, practicing situational awareness, de-escalating conflicts, and avoiding high-risk locations.

🦠 Infections

From respiratory illnesses to potential pandemics. Mitigations include vaccinations, HEPA filters, maintaining supplies of masks and essentials, and seeking prompt treatment for worsening infections.

❤️ Heart Disease & Stroke

High-ROI prevention includes smoking cessation, blood pressure control, Mediterranean diet, regular exercise, appropriate medications, weight management, and knowing warning signs.

Broad preparation plans

To increase resilience during technological transition periods:

Call for Contributions

We're seeking volunteer contributors who can help expand and improve the guide following these principles:

Our target audience values efficiency, rationality, optionality, personal agency, and common sense.

The most effective content will feature clear cause-effect reasoning, specific actions, visual representations, and accessible preparation strategies.

Visit the Singularity Survival Guide website for the complete resource, including Deep Research reports on each risk category.

If you'd like to contribute, join our Discord community.

What risk mitigation strategies have you found most effective in your own life?

What other important risk or preparation areas have I missed in V1?



Discuss

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奇点 风险管理 生存指南 个人安全
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