少点错误 01月26日
Notes on Argentina
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本文作者在阿根廷蜜月旅行期间,深入观察了该国在总统米莱执政一年后的经济和社会变革。从乌斯怀亚到埃尔查尔滕,再到布宜诺斯艾利斯,作者亲身体验了米莱政府的政策影响。文章探讨了通货膨胀、货币贬值、影子经济、价格管制、以及政府规模缩减等问题,并分析了这些变化对当地居民生活的影响。尽管面临挑战,作者对阿根廷的未来表示乐观,认为米莱政府正在朝着经济复苏的正确方向前进,但改革的阵痛仍需时间消化。

🇦🇷 米莱总统上任后,阿根廷经历了重大经济转型,包括货币大幅贬值、取消价格管制和补贴,旨在消除影子经济。这些政策导致商品和服务价格上涨,但官方与非官方汇率差距缩小。

💸 乌斯怀亚等地的政府部门因政府缩减规模而关闭,导致部分居民失业,但旅游业仍然是当地经济支柱。曾经流行的美元黑市交易现象减少,信用卡支付逐渐普及,表明经济正在规范化。

⛰️ 埃尔查尔滕的物价明显高于邻国智利,这与阿根廷长期以来的保护主义政策和税收有关。米莱政府虽着手解除关税和管制,但效果显现仍需时日,短期内居民生活压力较大。

🚶 布宜诺斯艾利斯的街头小贩现象突出,反映了部分居民在经济改革期间仍面临生活困境。但尽管如此,布宜诺斯艾利斯仍保持活力,拥有丰富的文化和美食,为作者的蜜月之旅画上完美句号。

🗣️ 旅行期间,作者与众多阿根廷人交流,大多数人对未来表示乐观,认为生活有所改善,尽管也存在对政府的怀疑。作者认为米莱政府的改革虽然痛苦,但必要且正朝着正确的方向发展。

Published on January 26, 2025 3:51 AM GMT

Fitz Roy Massif, El Chalten, Argentina

I recently got back from Argentina, where we decided to spend part of our honeymoon. We chose Argentina for our honeymoon because my wife and I met in Patagonia in 2022, and we love the region. Behind the choice was also my desire to see a country undergoing a major economic transformation: by the time we arrived in Ushuaia, President Javier Milei had been in power for a year. President Milei is perhaps the first democratically elected libertarian in history, elected with a mandate to transform Argentina's economy and society. I wanted to see firsthand what had changed in Argentina over the past 12 months.

Brief history on how Javier Milei came to power

After the COVID pandemic, Argentina experienced a severe economic crisis, with very high inflation and poverty rates. Milei, an outsider with a larger-than-life personality, catapulted himself to the top of the polls with his unorthodox style and strong criticism of Argentina's political class. In the runoff election, he soundly defeated Sergio Massa, the economy minister from the incumbent Peronist coalition. Milei's win represents perhaps the greatest non-violent ideological pendulum swing in a country since the fall of Communism in the late 80s.

This rise in annual inflation led to President Milei’s electoral win. Created using Claude.ai

Ushuaia

The city of Ushuaia and the Beagle Channel

Our first stop in Argentina was Ushuaia. Located on the 54th parallel south latitude, Ushuaia is the world's southernmost city. The city sits on the main island of the Tierra del Fuego archipelago, at South America's southern tip.

Tourism drives Ushuaia's economy, as it serves as the gateway to Antarctica. Other economic activities include fishing, government services, and farming. Given President Milei's policy of reducing government size, several local ministry offices have closed or are shutting down. Many locals I spoke with knew someone who had lost their government job in 2024 and were still seeking employment.

Casa de la Mujer Ushuaia, part of the now defunct Women’s Ministry

Having visited in 2022, we prepared for our 2024 visit by bringing $100 US dollar bills. In 2022, Argentina had a parallel shadow economy driven by its precarious economic situation. At the time, it was much more affordable for visitors to bring USD currency, exchange it to Argentine Pesos (ARS) at the Dollar Blue rate, and use cash for expenses. Many businesses operated as unofficial exchange houses and accepted payment in USD, euros, and even cryptocurrency. In February 2022, the Dollar Blue exchange rate was twice the official rate. Though this parallel economy was illegal, government authorities in the region turned a blind eye, as everyone participated.

After dropping our bags at our Airbnb, we set off to exchange our USD. We were surprised to learn that regular businesses had stopped operating as exchange houses, with only a handful of places providing currency exchange services. One business owner explained that he maintains the service as a convenience to tourists but doesn't profit much anymore because he must exchange acquired USD back to ARS to pay suppliers. The difference between the Dollar Blue and official exchange rates has narrowed to less than 10%, and most international credit cards now use the Dollar Blue rate when foreigners use their cards in Argentina.

The stacks of ARS that we got for exchanging USD. After spending this cash, we started using our credit cards

El Chalten

After a restful week in Ushuaia, we flew north to El Chalten, a town in Santa Cruz province known as Argentina’s capital of trekking. The town is also famous for being in the shadow of Mount Fitz Roy, an imposing peak considered one of the most beautiful mountains in the world.

Entrance to El Chalten. From Unsplash

We noticed that many products and services were significantly more expensive in Argentina than in Chile, where we had spent 35 days traveling. Through conversations with locals, I understood why. President Milei's initial action was severely devaluing the Argentine Peso, making dollar-denominated goods more expensive. He also eliminated price controls and subsidies on several products to liberalize the economy and eliminate the shadow economy.

This transformation came at a cost. A coffee shop owner shared how tire prices in his town reached $1,000 USD per set. He instead drove two and a half hours to Chile, where he bought the same tires for $450 USD.

The peso devaluation alone couldn't explain such price disparities. Research revealed that decades of protectionist policies had created a complex web of regulations, taxes, and tariffs protecting the local economy. Business owners passed these costs to consumers. Before Milei's presidency, the shadow economy allowed businesses to avoid some costs and offer lower prices.

Federico Sturzenegger

The government initially focused on reducing inflation, stabilizing currency, reducing the deficit, and ending the shadow economy. With these goals largely achieved by December 2024, attention shifted to deregulation under Federico Sturzenegger, the Minister of Deregulation and State Transformation. While Mr. Sturzenegger began dismantling burdensome tariffs, taxes, and regulations, the effects take time to materialize.

Estancia La Quinta, El Chalten

Given the negative atmosphere due to high prices, we shortened our stay in El Chalten and extended our time in Buenos Aires.

Buenos Aires

Buenos Aires is Argentina’s largest city and one of the largest metropolises in Latin America. In my opinion, it is the best city in Latin America. Despite the country's challenges since my previous visit in 2003, Buenos Aires has maintained its charm.

Palace of the Argentine National Congress

My wife and I explored the city through extensive walks and runs through Palermo, Villa Crespo, Recoleta, San Nicolas, Puerto Madero, and San Telmo. We felt safe throughout, noting considerable police presence. The city was clean and organized, though like many Western metropolises, it had some homelessness.

Street market in Palermo

During our walks in Buenos Aires, we noticed an overwhelming amount of street vendors selling basic items from their backpacks. After several polite interactions, I asked one vendor about his work. He explained that a day's wage as a laborer (25,000 ARS/$22 USD) couldn't cover his family's basic needs. Street vending offered better income in less time, plus local restaurants would share leftover food at closing. This interaction highlighted how many Buenos Aires residents still struggle, even as economic reforms progress.

Tango in San Telmo

Despite these challenges, we thoroughly enjoyed Buenos Aires. The city pulses with energy, offering excellent gastronomy and eclectic nightlife. It was the perfect conclusion to our honeymoon.

Casa Rosada, the Presidential Palace of Argentina

Final Thoughts

Throughout our 23-day trip, I asked over 100 people about their hopes for Argentina's future - from Ushuaia's tourism workers to Buenos Aires entrepreneurs. Most expressed optimism despite a difficult 2024, often citing specific improvements they'd seen in their daily lives. Some showed nihilism toward government, doubting significant change would occur - a skepticism earned from years of economic ups and downs. Only one person believed Argentina was heading in a worse direction.

President Milei inherited an extremely challenging situation, and expecting economic recovery within a year would have been unreasonable. Based on my observations and conversations across three distinct regions of the country, his government appears to be on a solid path to recovery. The structural changes are painful but necessary. I wish his administration and the Argentine people success and look forward to returning to see how these reforms develop over time.



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阿根廷经济 米莱总统 经济改革 货币贬值 影子经济
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