Published on January 21, 2025 7:16 AM GMT
Why is almost everything either overwhelming or nonexistent? I can't step outside without stepping on a pigeon, but I haven't seen a cardinal in years. Topics are discussed either constantly or never. You bike 200 miles per week or never. You are probably cancer free or dead from cancer. Your old stocks and coins are either worthless or worth a fortune. Stuff from my old popular science magazines is either in the palm of my hand or nonexistent.
The answer is what you would expect. Memes and bike clubs and cancer and companies and technology and pigeons all tend to grow/improve/multiply at a rate proportional to their current size/capabilities/population. If you've forgotten precalc, that's the definition of exponential growth.
There is some resistance force against all things, but even an exponential resistance (eg by the immune system) rounds to zero eventually if it grows even slightly slower than its target. 1% growth per second is 10,000x more per day than 0.99% growth per second.
Of course earth can only nourish so many pigeons, but after the strong exponential is over, growth basically completely stops. There's not really a long linear phase or anything. Growth is just zero until it is exponential until it is zero again. This approximation is accurate enough to call it reality.
If someone offers you exponential returns on your investment then it's probably a scam, but banks do that and they just call it "compounding growth". That is a much more descriptive name.
It's a bit crazy to think AI capabilities will improve exponentially. I am a very reasonable person, so I just think they'll improve some amount proportional to their current level. Like the next thing is 5% better than the last thing. Although the things are only a month or two apart now...
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