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- The Supreme Court upheld a law on Friday that could ban TikTok in the US.The ban could mean the migration of users — and billions of ad dollars — to competitors.Meta could gain up to $3.38 billion solely through freed up ad revenue, eMarketer estimated.
Meta stands to be one of the largest beneficiaries if TikTok is booted from US app stores on Sunday.
TikTok is facing a likely ban in the United States after the Supreme Court upheld a law on Friday that forces ByteDance, the app's Chinese parent company, to sell TikTok's US operations or be removed from American app stores.
The law prevents US users from downloading TikTok or installing updates, which could eventually make the platform unusable. TikTok's lawyers said in a Supreme Court hearing that the app could also "go dark," blocking existing users from seeing videos.
The ban would hobble one of the largest social media companies in the United States, leaving the time users spend on the app and billions of dollars of ad revenue up for grabs, according to an analysis from Business Insider's sister company EMARKETER.
"Our latest forecast estimates that TikTok generated $12.34 billion in US ad revenues in 2024," the analysis said. "Assuming TikTok could lose between 50% and 70% of ad revenues due to a ban, $6.17 billion to $8.64 billion of ad spending could need a new home."
And one social media giant's loss could be another social media giant's gain.
The analysis estimated that Meta, owner of Facebook and Instagram, could reap anywhere between $2.46 billion to $3.38 billion in ad revenue with a TikTok ban.
Spokespeople for Tiktok and Meta did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Similarly, Morgan Stanley analysts say that Meta will be the "largest fundamental winner of any TikTok ban" in part due to its existing user base and data set.
The ban could add 5 to 9 percent in Meta's earnings per share for the 2026 fiscal year, Morgan Stanley analysts wrote.
Instagram scrolling is also poised to replace some of the time US users spent on TikTok, analysts say.
EMARKETER estimates that TikTok users in the US spent nearly an hour of their day on the app in 2024 and nearly three quarters of those users were also on Instagram.
"That leaves close to an hour of their daily media time up for grabs," eMarketer analysts wrote.
Morgan Stanley analysts say that Meta would gain around $.30 to $.60 to their 2026 earnings per share estimates for every 10% of TikTok's US time Meta captures.
The upside of a TikTok ban won't be concentrated to Meta.
Alphabet's YouTube and Snapchat may also see some benefits with TikTok out of the way.
For advertisers, a looming TikTok ban should serve as a prescient reminder that no platform, however large, is invincible.
"Although it's difficult to say if the TikTok ban will go ahead, as it's possible TikTok could sell at the last minute, this should serve as a warning not to put all your content eggs in one basket," Danielle Dullaghan, social strategy director, at the marketing agency Iris, told Business Insider.
James Poulter, head of AI and innovation at London-based ad agency House 337, told BI that the brands and creators who will succeed are those diversified across platforms and focused on "owned assets like websites and email lists."
"The brands and creators who thrive in uncertain times are those who prepare for the unexpected, ensuring their stories can be told regardless of the platform," he said.
