文章探讨了LessWrong社区的平均智商，Scott最初估计为138，后修正为128。文章分析了多种数据来源，包括人口统计学常模、SAT成绩和自我报告的智商。通过详细的计算，揭示了SAT成绩和自我报告的智商都存在高估现象。例如，使用SAT成绩计算出的智商需要进行回归和调整，而自我报告的智商则需要减去因自我认知偏差而产生的分数。最终，文章汇总了多个LessWrong和SSC调查的数据，发现平均智商估计值稳定在122左右。尽管这个数字可能低于一些人的预期，但122的智商仍然处于博士水平。

📊 文章核心在于对LessWrong社区平均智商的重新评估，从最初的138修正至128，并最终通过多方数据分析得出约122的结论。

📝 文章详细解析了SAT成绩与智商的换算过程，指出原始SAT分数需要经过回归和调整才能更准确地反映智商水平，并以1490分的SAT中位数为例，计算出调整后的智商为123。

🤔 自我报告的智商存在显著偏差，文章指出，报告参加过智商测试的人平均声称自己智商为131，但实际测试平均只有114，因此需要减去17分来校准自我报告的智商，使得数据更加可信。

📈 通过对多个LessWrong和SSC调查数据的汇总，文章发现，无论是基于自我报告的智商，还是基于SAT成绩推算的智商，其估计值都稳定在122左右，这表明该社区的平均智商水平相对一致。

Published on December 28, 2024 3:42 PM GMT

In The Mystery Of Internet Survey IQs, Scott revises his estimate of the average LessWrong IQ from 138 to 128. He doesn’t explicitly explain how he arrived at this number, but it appears to be an average of the demographics norm method (123) and the SAT method (134). However, using the information in his post, the SAT method doesn’t actually yield 134 but rather 123.  

Here’s the breakdown: a median SAT score of 1490 (from the LessWrong 2014 survey) corresponds to +2.42 SD, which regresses to +1.93 SD for IQ using an SAT-IQ correlation of +0.80. This equates to an IQ of 129. Subtracting 6 points (since, according to the ClearerThinking test, the IQs of people who took the SAT and remember their score is ~6 points higher than the group average) brings the adjusted IQ estimate to 123. 

The ClearerThinking test also provides a way to adjust self-reported IQs. Subtracting 17 points (because people who report having taken an IQ test claim an average score of 131, but their tested average is only 114) gives an adjusted IQ of 121, based on a self-reported average of 138.  

Aggregating the data across all LessWrong and SSC surveys^[1] with available information, the estimates consistently cluster around 122. While some might think this is too low, it’s worth noting that an IQ of 122 is at the PhD level.  

1. ^{^}
   2017 SSC Survey (Link): Estimated IQ Mean = 122
   From Self-Reported IQ: 122 (average reported IQ: 138.5)From Self-Reported SAT: 122 (average SAT score: 1471.9, regressed IQ: 128 - 6 = 122)
   2009 LessWrong Survey (Link): Estimated IQ Mean = 125
   From Self-Reported IQ: 125 (median reported IQ: 142)
   2011 LessWrong Survey (Link): Estimated IQ Mean = 123
   From Self-Reported IQ: 123 (average reported IQ: 140)
   2012 LessWrong Survey (Link): Estimated IQ Mean = 122.5
   From Self-Reported IQ: 122 (average reported IQ: 138.7)From Self-Reported SAT: 123 (average SAT score: 1485.8, regressed IQ: 129 - 6 = 123)
   2013 LessWrong Survey (Link): Estimated IQ Mean = 121.5
   From Self-Reported IQ: 121 (average reported IQ: 138.2)From Self-Reported SAT: 122 (average SAT score: 1474, regressed IQ: 128 - 6 = 122)
   2014 LessWrong Survey (Link): Estimated IQ Mean = 122
   From Self-Reported IQ: 121 (average reported IQ: 138.25)From Self-Reported SAT: 123 (median SAT score: 1490, regressed IQ: 129 - 6 = 123)
   2023 LessWrong Survey (Link): Estimated IQ Mean = 121.5
   From Self-Reported IQ: 118 (average reported IQ: 135.4)From Self-Reported SAT: 125 (median SAT score: 1520, regressed IQ: 131 - 6 = 125)

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