少点错误 2024年12月23日
Stop Making Sense
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本文探讨了在不同情境下使用不同微理论的合理性,并强调了避免大规模共享低分辨率世界模型的重要性。文章指出,全局适用的模型更新往往难以整合,限制在局部相关性内更易管理。作者认为,在不同局部情境中保持一定程度的不一致是可以接受的,重要的是每个微理论都能帮助你在特定领域取得成功。文章还警示了大规模传播迷因的风险,以及不良行为者利用这种混乱进行掠夺的可能性。作者倾向于与熟人进行面对面交流,并建议与父母分享模型,以保持理智。

💡 避免大规模共享低分辨率的全局世界模型,因为它们通常难以整合到行为中,限制在局部相关性内更易于管理和找到关键点。

🧩 在不同局部情境下,可以接受一定程度的不一致性,关键是每个微理论都能帮助你在特定领域取得实际进展,例如退休规划、健康管理、技能习得和媒体接触习惯。

⚠️ 大规模传播迷因会产生噪音,使不良行为者更容易混入混乱,并以掠夺的方式进行操作,甚至好意传播的迷因也可能产生负面影响。

🫂 与熟人进行面对面交流,并适度与父母分享模型,可以作为一种理智的“安全阀”,但需注意每个人的情况不同,不必强求一致。

Published on December 23, 2024 5:16 AM GMT

Epistemic Status: Seven years and one day ago, I wrote this. In 2017 we faced years of Trump and couldn't imagine covid. Here in 2024 we face years of Trump and I'm trying to "imagine what we can't imagine". I dislike the title (except for the part where it might introduce people to music from a previous century) but sort of ONLY the title. The title suggests that "sense-making" is "bad", but what I dislike are strong takes on things so abstract as to lose their connection to concrete concerns. I consider ideas here friendly with Sarah shining her flashlight of curiosity upon the slipperiness of words in and out of their various contexts and David trying to name the virtue of handling what he calls systems or rationalities, but which I'm calling microtheories below (following the CYC team who noticed the necessity but never seems to have thought to ask where the necessity came from). The reason to publish now is discussed in the post script.

...

It seems unlikely to me that a mass sharing of world models from everyone to everyone is a good idea, especially the sharing of low resolution globally applicable models.

Globally applicable updates are often "too much" to behaviorally integrate, so restricting to local relevance makes things more manageable. Cruxes can be found more easily, and so on.

It is OK to be somewhat inconsistent from one local context to another, so long as you don't get too crazy with it. Tolerating cognitive dissonance is a virtue.

Fix your retirement planning. Separately fix your health stuff. Separately fix your career-related skill acquisition. Separately fix your media exposure habits.

Like, it is probably OK to have subtly but pervasively different micro-theories about "memetics" when thinking about (1) finance marketing, (2) diet advice, (3) implicit skill transfer, and (4) the economics of ad-supported news organizations.

The actual key thing is that each micro-theory helps you get your working theory in each context helps you (1) actually retire, (2) with health, (3) by making money with efficiently acquired skills, (4) while... uh... yeah I'd rather not talk about mass media just now ;-)

If you want to retire, ask people about their retirement models. If someone asks you for retirement advice, share your micro-theories freely. Crux away! But don't go spreading the models around until someone asks, and if someone's retirement planning turns into a theory of everything that indicates that you should give them money... be suspicious.

There will be a lot of noise if everyone spreads memes profligately and feels virtuous by doing so. Also, this noise will make it easier for bad actors to blend into the larger chaos in predatory ways, and second order spreaders of ill-intended memes (that are optimized to be viral) might do this with full good faith with net bad effects. (Also, the "share this for great virtue" hook is a classic component of a lot of weaponized memes.)

Personally I've always avoided Facebook because it is basically a cesspool where the opposite of this kind of thinking is the de facto driver of Zuckerberg's money making scheme.

I try to stick to conversations with people I know F2F, preferably for years.

For me personally, my parents are always in my model sharing loop to at least some degree, as a "sanity release valve".

However, I've found that recommending this tactic to other people my age often elicits strong aversions to parental trust that are decently well founded. Based on this I've updated moderately in the direction of my parents being unusually sane. Still, the advice to share models with your parents is likely to still work for anyone who bothers to care about sanity and who suspects that their parents are at or above the 90th percentile of "parental sanity".

...

Post Script: I publish now because my mother died ~2 weeks ago. She was causally upstream of the existence of at least one LW post because she helped me understand (n=1) that "an agent" could be absolutely supportive of some other agent with some other utility function to the best of their ability, and it could just work. And there were coherent evolutionary arguments for why that would be, but also I could simply look and see that this sort of "way for an agent to be" exists coherently, despite examples being rare in any other part of nature or human experience other than in the active care of wise mammalian parents.

The theory and the praxis were unified here, if anywhere, in ways that were vivid to me, based on my fair share of the benevolence built into mammalian biology. And so on the second shortest day of the year, with nights that are long, but getting shorter now, I found an old draft of an essay that reminds me of parents in general, and my mother's unique goodness as a parent in particular, and what has been lost ?️



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