Fortune | FORTUNE 2024年11月14日
Elon Musk, Vivek Ramaswamy, and the $35T national debt—entrepreneurs to the rescue
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本文探讨了美国日益严重的国家债务问题,指出其已成为国家面临的重大挑战。文章强调,美国政府长期以来过度支出,导致国家债务持续攀升,并分析了债务危机带来的潜在风险,例如信用评级下降和融资困难。文章呼吁政府采取措施削减开支,以解决债务问题,并认为新成立的政府效率部门,由埃隆·马斯克和维韦克·拉马斯瓦米领导,或许能带来改变。文章认为,解决债务问题需要政府展现财政纪律,并拒绝政治妥协,才能避免国家陷入经济困境。

🤔 **美国国家债务持续攀升,已达35万亿美元的历史新高。** 长期以来,无论是哪一党执政,国家债务几乎都在持续增长,政治家们在减少债务方面缺乏可信度,导致债务负担不断加重。

📈 **高额债务带来严重后果,包括信用评级下降和融资风险。** 标准普尔和惠誉等评级机构已下调美国债务评级,表明投资者对美国偿债能力的担忧。如果美国继续过度支出,最终可能面临无法偿还债务的风险。

✂️ **解决债务问题需要政府削减开支,加强财政纪律。** 文章指出,政府需要像普通家庭一样,控制开支,减少不必要的支出。但这在华盛顿几乎是不可能的,因为这需要政府拒绝游说团体和选民的要求,这在政治上非常困难。

💡 **新成立的政府效率部门是解决债务问题的一项积极尝试。** 该部门由埃隆·马斯克和维韦克·拉马斯瓦米领导,他们将采用“前所未有的企业家方法”来管理政府,这或许能带来政府效率的提升,从而有助于解决债务问题。

⚠️ **美国政府必须正视债务问题,否则可能面临灾难性后果。** 如果投资者停止购买美国国债,美国将无法偿还债务,这将对美国经济造成严重冲击。

Yesterday, the Trump team announced the formation of a new effort, the Department of Government Efficiency, to make the government more efficient, i.e. to cut costs and save taxpayers money. The department will be led by billionaire Tesla CEO Elon Musk and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, who will take “an entrepreneurial approach to government never seen before.” No matter what party you are affiliated with, this is a worthy cause. Not since the Reagan administration (and not even really then) has this issue been seriously addressed by the federal government. Hopefully, this time, something will actually happen. Better, the effort will be run by people who have proven that they can actually do this—entrepreneurs, creators. Whether you personally like the people appointed is not material since the country will gain if the objective of the department is achieved. This is long overdue. The federal government began to grow unabated at a fast clip as far back as FDR’s administration.The national debt hit a record $35 trillion this year. Our national debt has been growing almost continuously for at least 70 years under both parties. Despite their words, to date, politicians have zero credibility in reducing it. National debt crisisTo put the burden of the national debt into perspective, the U.S. put $38 billion toward paying the interest on our national debt in September, the most recent month for which data is available, not even the cost of running the government. That’s more than 15% of individual income tax dollars generated that month. The hope that the debt will magically fall is nil.The rising debt has real implications. About 10 years ago, Standard & Poor’s (S&P) had the temerity to reduce the bond rating of the United States, outrageously stating that the risk of debt goes up as the amount of debt increases. The idea is that the risk increases as an entity keeps borrowing and never pays the money back. As I recall, one politician had the gall to question the patriotism of S&P for doing so. I suppose it’s patriotic to keep spending us into a mountain of debt without any heed to physics. Last year, Fitch Ratings lowered our debt rating from AAA to AA+. I’d say the teacher is actually lenient in his/her grading policy. Think of a business or even a person. If a business takes in $1 million in revenue and spends $2 million each year forever, who would continue to lend money to that business? Would you? If a person is making $100,000 a year and is spending $120,000 a year in perpetuity, what is the result? Bankruptcy. This is not just basic economics, it’s common sense. At some point, people will stop lending us money; they will stop buying our debt, and we will have no means to pay back what we owe. This is where it gets interesting. Some PhDs who live in the abstract world of spreadsheets and models say we don’t have to worry about our debt because the dollar is the basis for currency and exchange in the world. Others say the debt needs to be measured only as compared to GDP. These ideas argue against a phenomenon as simple as gravity: an entity that keeps borrowing and never reduces its debt cannot survive. Cutting expensesThe solution is not complicated. We need to cut our expenses. I don’t know about you, but I would not lend money to someone unless they proved they had a modicum of fiscal restraint. As anyone with a budget knows, it is difficult to reduce expenses. It takes discipline. And I do mean lower expenses. Politicians have a funny definition of “cutting expenses.” If you were spending $100 a year in household expenses, and I asked you to cut them, you might think I meant to reduce expenses to, say, $99 or less. In Washington, their definition is a reduction in the rate of increase. Using the previous example, this means that if you were spending $100 a year (and could not afford that) and you planned on spending $105 next year, and you agree to only spend $104, this is a cut of $1. Using logic like that, it is no wonder we are virtually bankrupt. Only in Washington does math like that get applied. Cutting expenses is almost impossible to do in Washington D.C. with our current crop of legislators because it would require the unthinkable—telling lobbyists and constituents “no” once in a while. The formation of this department is a step in the right direction. The country must get its fiscal house in order because it’s a matter of time before someone says rightly that the emperor has no clothes and has been naked for a long time. If people stop lending us money, it would be catastrophic. Read more:The opinions expressed in Fortune.com commentary pieces are solely the views of their authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and beliefs of Fortune.A newsletter for the boldest, brightest leaders: CEO Daily is your weekday morning dossier on the news, trends, and chatter business leaders need to know. Sign up here.

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国家债务 政府效率 财政纪律 经济危机 美国
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