New field experiments carried out by physicists in California’s Sierra Nevada mountains suggest that intermittent bursts of embers play an unexpectedly large role in the spread of wildfires, calling into question some aspects of previous fire models. While this is not the first study to highlight the importance of embers, it does indicate that standard modelling tools used to predict wildfire spread may need to be modified to account for these rare but high-impact events.
Embers form during a wildfire due to a combination of heat, wind and flames. Once lofted into the air, they can travel long distances and may trigger new “spot fires” when they land. Understanding ember behaviour is therefore important for predicting how a wildfire will spread and helping emergency services limit infrastructure damage and prevent loss of life.
Watching it burn
In their field experiments, Tirtha Banerjee and colleagues at the University of California Irvine built a “pile fire” – essentially a bonfire fuelled by a representative mixture of needles, branches, pinecones and pieces of wood from ponderosa pine and Douglas fir trees – in the foothills of the Sierra Nevada mountains. A high-frequency (120 frames per second) camera recorded the fire’s behaviour for 20 minutes, and the researchers placed aluminium baking trays around it to collect the embers it ejected.
After they extinguished the pile fire, the researchers brought the ember samples back to the laboratory and measured their size, shape and density. Footage from the camera enabled them to estimate the fire’s intensity based on its height. They also used a technique called particle tracking velocimetry to follow firebrands and calculate their trajectories, velocities and accelerations.
Highly intermittent ember generation
Based on the footage, the team concluded that ember generation is highly intermittent, with occasional bursts containing orders of magnitude more embers than were ejected at baseline. Existing models do not capture such behaviour well, says Alec Petersen, an experimental fluid dynamicist at UC Irvine and lead author of a Physics of Fluids paper on the experiment. In particular, he explains that models with a low computational cost often make simplifications in characterizing embers, especially with regards to fire plumes and ember shapes. This means that while they can predict how far an average firebrand with a certain size and shape will travel, the accuracy of those predictions is poor.
“Although we care about the average behaviour, we also want to know more about outliers,” he says. “It only takes a single ember to ignite a spot fire.”
As an example of such an outlier, Petersen notes that sometimes a strong updraft from a fire plume coincides with the fire emitting a large number of embers. Similar phenomena occur in many types of turbulent flows, including atmospheric winds as well as buoyant fire plumes, and they are characterized by statistically infrequent but extreme fluctuations in velocity. While these fluctuations are rare, they could partially explain why the team observed large (>1mm) firebrands travelling further than models predict, he tells Physics World.
This is important, Petersen adds, because large embers are precisely the ones with enough thermal energy to start spot fires. “Given enough chances, even statistically unlikely events can become probable, and we need to take such events into account,” he says.
New models, fresh measurements
The researchers now hope to reformulate operational models to do just this, but they acknowledge that this will be challenging. “Predicting spot fire risk is difficult and we’re only just scratching the surface of what needs to be included for accurate and useful predictions that can help first responders,” Petersen says.
They also plan to do more experiments in conjunction with a consortium of fire researchers that Banerjee set up. Beginning in November, when temperatures in California are cooler and the wildfire risk is lower, members of the new iFirenet consortium plan to collaborate on a large-scale field campaign at the UC Berkeley Research Forests. “We’ll have tonnes of research groups out there, measuring all sorts of parameters for our various projects,” Petersen says. “We’ll be trying to refine our firebrand tracking experiments too, using multiple cameras to track them in 3D, hopefully supplemented with a thermal camera to measure their temperatures.
“My background is in measuring and describing the complex dynamics of particles carried by turbulent flows,” Petersen continues. “I don’t have the same deep expertise studying fires that I do in experimental fluid dynamics, so it’s always a challenge to learn the best practices of a new field and to familiarize yourself with the great research folks have done in the past and are doing now. But that’s what makes studying fluid dynamics so satisfying – it touches so many corners of our society and world, there’s always something new to learn.”
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