本文探讨了布伦南司法中心组织的五场非党派桌面演习，这些演习模拟了一位威权主义候选人赢得总统大选，以测试民主制度的韧性。演习邀请了来自不同政治派别和背景的175名参与者，模拟了政府、执法、军方、国会、司法、媒体和民间社会等各个部门在面对威权主义领导人时的反应。演习的目的是通过模拟现实场景，提前预判潜在的风险，并为应对这些风险做好准备。

👨‍💻 布伦南司法中心组织了五场非党派桌面演习，模拟了一位威权主义候选人赢得总统大选，以测试民主制度的韧性。

💪 演习邀请了175名来自不同政治派别和背景的参与者，包括前政府官员、军方将领、劳工领袖、宗教领袖、基层活动人士、媒体人士和企业高管等。

🧠 演习模拟了政府、执法、军方、国会、司法、媒体和民间社会等各个部门在面对威权主义领导人时的反应，旨在提前预判潜在的风险，并为应对这些风险做好准备。

📊 演习中的情景基于前总统特朗普的公开声明，模拟了他在第二任期可能采取的威权主义措施，例如干预选举、压制言论自由、滥用权力等。

🎯 演习的目的是测试民主制度的韧性，并为应对潜在的风险做好准备。

🛡️ 演习结果表明，民主制度在面对威权主义挑战时，需要依靠各个部门的共同努力，才能有效地抵御风险。

🧠 演习结果表明，民主制度在面对威权主义挑战时，需要依靠各个部门的共同努力，才能有效地抵御风险。

💡 演习的成功举办，证明了通过模拟现实场景，提前预判潜在的风险，并为应对这些风险做好准备的重要性。

Published on October 17, 2024 5:14 AM GMT

In this episode of the Making Sense podcast with Sam Harris, Barton Gellman from The Brennan Center For Justice discusses how he "organized five nonpartisan tabletop exercises premised on an authoritarian candidate winning the presidency to test the resilience of democratic institutions".

"The 175 participants across five exercises were Republicans, Democrats, and independents; liberals, conservatives, and centrists. They included veterans of the first Trump administration and previous administrations of both parties. "

This seems like an extremely valuable exercise when trying to prepare for long-tail risks.

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I often think about about this post. It asks the seriously neglected question: Why was the AI Alignment community so unprepared for this moment?

I think we're going to get competent Digital Agents soon (< 2 years). I think when they arrive, unless we work urgently, we will again feel like we were extremely unprepared.

I'd like to see either a new AI Safety organisation created to run these exercises with key decision makers (e.g. Government, Industry, maybe Academia), or have an existing org (CAIS?) take on the responsibility.

Every morning we should be repeating the mantra: there are no parents in the room. It is just us.

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More here on the program:

"In May and June 2024, the Brennan Center organized five nonpartisan tabletop exercises premised on an authoritarian candidate winning the presidency to test the resilience of democratic institutions. The antidemocratic executive actions explored in the scenarios were based on former President Donald Trump’s public statements about his plans for a potential second term in office.  

We do not predict whether Trump will win the November election, and we take no position on how Americans should cast their votes. What we have done is simulated how authoritarian elements of Trump’s agenda, if he is elected, might play out against lawful efforts to check abuses of power.

The 175 participants across five exercises were Republicans, Democrats, and independents; liberals, conservatives, and centrists. They included veterans of the first Trump administration and previous administrations of both parties.  

Among them were former governors, former cabinet members, former state attorneys general, former members of the House and Senate, retired flag and general officers, labor leaders, faith leaders, grassroots activists, members of the Brennan Center staff, and C-suite business executives. In the exercises, they represented cabinet secretaries, executive agency chiefs, law enforcement officers, the military chain of command, Congress, the judiciary, state and local governments, news media, and elements of civil society. "

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