本期Hidden Forces节目中，Demetri Kofinas与Grant's Interest Rate Observer创始人Jim Grant探讨了“美国优先”经济议程，以及投资者在预测利率、增长和通胀时如何看待美国经济政策的变化。Jim Grant将当代美国政治与美国历史上的其他时期进行了比较，包括将2024年美国大选与其他选举进行比较，并解释了为什么决策者和市场参与者都没有谨慎考虑与东欧和中东的两场旷日持久的战争以及太平洋地区可能爆发的第三场冲突相关的风险。Demetri和Jim还花了不少时间分析特朗普的“美国优先”经济议程，包括他的支出提案、关税、减税和进口关税，以及如果特朗普在2025年重返白宫，特朗普政府的“美国优先”能源政策将会是什么样子。

🤔 **“美国优先”经济议程：**Jim Grant认为，特朗普的“美国优先”经济政策将导致利率上升，因为政府支出增加将推高通货膨胀。他认为，特朗普的贸易政策，包括对中国商品征收关税，将导致美国经济增长放缓，因为它将增加企业成本并减少消费者支出。

🌎 **全球风险：**Jim Grant认为，决策者和市场参与者都没有谨慎考虑与东欧和中东的两场旷日持久的战争以及太平洋地区可能爆发的第三场冲突相关的风险。他认为，这些冲突将对全球经济造成重大负面影响，导致利率上升和增长放缓。

💰 **通货膨胀和利率：**Jim Grant认为，特朗普的“美国优先”经济政策将导致通货膨胀上升，因为政府支出增加将推高需求。他认为，美联储将被迫提高利率以控制通货膨胀，这将导致经济增长放缓。

💡 **能源政策：**Jim Grant认为，特朗普的“美国优先”能源政策将导致化石燃料价格上涨，因为它将限制进口并鼓励国内生产。他认为，这将对消费者和企业造成负面影响，因为他们的能源成本将上升。

🗳️ **2024年大选：**Jim Grant认为，2024年美国大选将对美国经济产生重大影响。他认为，如果特朗普再次当选，他的“美国优先”经济政策将导致利率上升、增长放缓和通货膨胀上升。

🇺🇸 **历史比较：**Jim Grant将当代美国政治与美国历史上的其他时期进行了比较，包括将2024年美国大选与其他选举进行了比较。他认为，美国正处于一个政治和经济不确定性时期，这使得预测未来非常困难。

📈 **投资策略：**Jim Grant建议投资者在预测利率、增长和通胀时谨慎行事，并考虑“美国优先”经济议程可能带来的风险。他认为，投资者应考虑多元化投资组合，以降低风险。

⚠️ **风险提示：**本节目中的观点仅供参考，不构成投资建议。投资有风险，入市需谨慎。

In Episode 373 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Jim Grant, the founder of Grant's Interest Rate Observer, about the "America First" economic agenda and how investors should think about changes to U.S. economic policy when forecasting interest rates, growth, and inflation.

Jim Grant compares contemporary American politics to other periods in U.S. history, including electoral comparisons to the 2024 U.S. elections, and describes why the risks associated with two open-ended wars in Eastern Europe and the Middle East and a third potential conflict in the Pacific are not being prudently considered by policymakers and market participants alike. Demetri and Jim also devote considerable time to analyzing Trump’s “America First” economic agenda, including his spending proposals, tariffs, tax cuts, and import duties, as well as what an America First energy policy would look like under a Trump administration if he were to retake the White House in 2025.

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Episode Recorded on 07/24/2024