传染病和流行病准备专家Amesh Adalja博士在本期节目中，将当前疫情与以往冠状病毒及流感大流行进行比较，并解读了影响模型预测的演变指标。他还探讨了新冠病毒是否会成为季节性复发病毒，以及我们如何为未来新型病毒做好准备。最后，Amesh分享了他对积极趋势的观察，以及对未来的乐观态度。

🔍Amesh Adalja博士分析了新冠病毒与1958年亚洲流感、1918年西班牙流感的异同，并讨论了新冠病毒是否会每年季节性复发。[详细]

💉针对未来疫苗，Amesh探讨了是针对新冠病毒还是涵盖以往冠状病毒的问题，并对SARS-CoV-2的真实病死率进行了预测。[详细]

🔢Amesh解释了为何早期模型对感染和死亡人数的预测偏差数百万，并探讨了在应对未来疫情时，地方政府与中央政府的作用。[详细]

🔬Amesh反思了检测过程中出现的问题，并提出了如何更有效地利用检测手段的建议。[详细]

🌟Amesh对未来疫情准备持谨慎乐观态度，并讨论了针对不同地区（如纽约市与其他受影响较小的地区）是否应采取不同政策和限制的问题。[详细]

In this episode, infectious disease and pandemic preparedness expert, Amesh Adalja, M.D., puts the current pandemic into context against previous coronaviruses as well as past influenza pandemics. Amesh also provides his interpretation of the evolving metrics which have contributed to big variations in modeling predictions, whether this will be a seasonally recurring virus, and perhaps most importantly—how we can be better prepared for the inevitable future novel virus. Finally, Amesh explains where he sees positive trends which give him reasons for optimism.

We discuss:

Amesh’s background in infectious disease [2:40]; When did the virus actually reach the US? And when did Amesh realize it would pose a real threat to the US? [4:00]; Comparing and contrasting COVID-19 to previous pandemics like the Asian flu of 1958 and the Spanish flu of 1918 [8:00]; Will COVID-19 be a recurring seasonal virus every year? [14:00]; Will a future vaccine be specific to this COVID-19 or will it also cover previous coronaviruses as well? [15:15]; What does Amesh think might be the true case fatality rate of SARS-CoV-2? [16:15]; Why did early models over predict infections and deaths by order of millions? [18:30]; Role of government—How does Amesh view the role of local versus central government in dealing with a future pandemic? [21:50]; What went wrong with testing and how could we have utilized it more effectively? [25:15]; Future pandemic preparedness—why Amesh is cautiously optimistic [27:30]; Should there be different policies and restrictions for places like New York City compared to less populated and less affected places across the US? [30:15]; Why mass gatherings might be disproportionately driving the spread of the virus [32:30]; Learning from HKU1, a lesser-known novel coronavirus from 2005 [34:00]; Thoughts on Sweden’s herd immunity approach [36:10]; The efficacy of masks being worn in public and what role they will play as restrictions are slowly lifted [37:20]; What are some positive trends and signs of optimism? [39:15]; and More.

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