想象一个赌徒谬论成为现实的世界，存在一种神奇力量，它追踪生物对某个结果的预期，并在有机会发生却未发生时增加其发生的可能性。这种设定下，世界会有哪些不同？

🔍 在这个世界上，了解并积极考虑尽可能多好事发生的可能性可能会成为最优策略。例如，偶遇名人或银行错误转账等情况可能会更频繁发生。

🚫 相反，了解太多可能发生的坏事可能会变得危险。比如，在雷雨天气外出时，意识到被雷击的可能性可能会增加实际被击中的几率。

🤖 如果这种预期影响可以叠加，那么可能会出现利用弱AI来操纵可能性的“预期农场”，通过AI不断考虑某些事件来提高其发生的概率。

🌪️ 这个世界的‘机会’必须是独特的，否则每次站在风暴中都是一个新机会，这可能会导致系统的崩溃。

🔮 这种设定是建立在魔法基础上，过度探究其机制可能会导致对因果律的破坏或其他危险后果。

Published on July 25, 2024 10:03 PM GMT

Status: Thought experiment for fun
 

Imagine a world in which the gambler's fallacy is fundamentally true. Functionally, lets suppose there's a magical force that tracks a thinking being's expectation of any particular outcome, and then mysteriously increases the likelihood of said outcome the more often it had physically plausible opportunity to occur and did not^[1]. (This resets upon event occurrence).

In what ways do you expect this world differ from ours?^[2]

A few of my thoughts:

Depending on the tuning of the balance numbers & mechanics (I.E. What would determine the degree to which expectation shifts probability?) It might become optimal to learn about and deliberately consider the possibility of as many good things as possible. "I might run into a random celebrity/wealthy individual today and happen to befriend them!" "The bank might accidentally transfer a large amount of money into my account and forget about it!"Inversely, it could in such a world be intrinsically dangerous to learn about too many bad things that could happen to you. Every time you go outdoors in a thunderstorm and consider that lightning could strike you at any time, it magically becomes more likely, and so someone who stays ignorant of such hazards is in less danger than someone who knows of them and does nothing different.Does this stack with multiple beings considering the same possibility? Then it might enable "expectation farms" of weak AI thinking about particular things to tug on the threads of possibility.

1. ^{^}

   'Opportunities' would have to be distinct somehow, otherwise you could say that every nanosecond standing in the storm is yet another opportunity. I'm not going to define this super rigorously, so just use whatever system seems intuitive and functional to you if you were the administrator of this simulation or whatever.

2. ^{^}

    (Assuming it doesn't break causality or similarly hazardous anti-fun effects. Obviously it's magical and drilling down too far into the mechanics will inevitably conclude it's Magic All The Way Down)

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