John Gruber 2024年07月17日
NFL 2023 Week 12 Picks
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文章分析了美式足球比赛结果,作者分享了其对比赛的预测以及选择的投注策略,包括单场投注、串联投注和“tease”投注。文章涵盖了感恩节、黑色星期五和周日的三天比赛,分析了各支球队的实力,并对比赛结果进行了预测。

😄 **感恩节比赛预测**:作者预测达拉斯牛仔队将以较大优势战胜华盛顿指挥官队,并在“tease”投注中选择牛仔队让分7.5分。同时,作者也预测了西雅图海鹰队将以较大劣势输给旧金山49人队,并选择了海鹰队让分13分。 作者认为,牛仔队在对阵实力较弱的指挥官队时,有很大的机会“大胜”,而海鹰队则难以战胜强大的49人队。

😁 **黑色星期五比赛预测**:作者预测迈阿密海豚队将战胜纽约喷气机队,并选择了海豚队让分9.5分。同时,作者还选择了“parlay”投注,并预测海豚队获胜、泰勒·希尔获得80码以上接球码数和图阿·塔戈瓦伊洛亚完成2次以上传球达阵。 作者认为,海豚队实力明显强于喷气机队,并看好海豚队能够取得较大优势。同时,他也看好泰勒·希尔和图阿·塔戈瓦伊洛亚能够在比赛中取得出色表现。

😊 **周日比赛预测**:作者预测匹兹堡钢人队将战胜辛辛那提孟加拉虎队,并选择了钢人队让分2.5分。同时,作者也预测了巴尔的摩乌鸦队将战胜洛杉矶闪电队,并选择了乌鸦队让分3分。 作者认为,钢人队在面对缺少主力四分卫的孟加拉虎队时,有很大的机会获胜。而乌鸦队则拥有强大的进攻实力,有望战胜实力较弱的闪电队。

😉 **其他预测**:作者还预测了布法罗比尔队将战胜费城老鹰队,并选择了比尔队让分3分。同时,他还选择了“teaser”投注,并预测了比尔队获胜、斯蒂芬·迪格斯完成达阵、斯蒂芬·迪格斯获得67.5码以上接球码数和乔什·艾伦完成1.5次以上进攻达阵。 作者认为,比尔队实力不弱,并看好他们能够战胜老鹰队。同时,他也看好斯蒂芬·迪格斯和乔什·艾伦能够在比赛中取得出色表现。

🥰 **总结**:作者在文中分享了其对比赛的预测以及选择的投注策略,并对不同类型的投注进行了分析,为读者提供了参考。作者对比赛结果的预测也有一定的合理性,值得读者关注。 文章内容丰富,并对不同类型的投注策略进行了详细介绍,为读者提供了参考,同时作者也对比赛结果进行了预测,并对不同球队的实力进行了分析,为读者提供了更全面的信息。

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. Post-game comments, if any, in italics.

Thanksgiving:

TEASER: 2× bet ❌ ❌
LIONS -2.5 vs. Packers
COWBOYS -7.5 vs. Commanders — Gotta get some skin in this game. Teaser feels right.

COWBOYS -13.5 vs. Commanders ✅ — Let’s see how far Dallas can stretch this “run up the score against bad teams” thing. Also: most interesting stat I’ve read this week is that Ron Rivera has only ever had two winning seasons as a head coach. He’s on pace to get fired before this season ends.

TEASER:
COWBOYS -7.5 vs. Commanders
SEAHAWKS +13 vs. San Fran — This will look pretty smart if Dallas cruises.

Black Friday:

Dolphins -9.5 vs. JETS

Parlay +375: ❌ – Came close on this, but somehow Miami scored 34 with Tua only throwing 1 TD.
- Dolphins -9.5
- T. Hill: 80+ receiving yards
- Tagovailoa: 2+ passing TDs

Sunday:

Steelers -2.5 vs. BENGALS ✅ – Always bet against a backup QB.

Bills +3 vs. EAGLES ✋ – I’m part betting on the Bills because I’ll be rooting for them, but also because I think they’re a better team than 6-5. They’re right there with the Eagles on point differential for the season.

Teaser +575 ❌ – Came within a hair of winning this one. Who’d have thought the Bills would score 34 and Allen would only throw 1 TD pass? Fucking gambling.
- Bills moneyline
- Stefon Diggs TD
- Stefon Diggs 67.5+ receiving yards
- Josh Allen 1.5+ ADs

Chiefs -9 vs. RAIDERS ✅ – After that brutal loss to the Eagles I expect KC to come roaring back, especially on the passing game. My only regret here is that I didn’t double-down with a live moneyline bet after the Chiefs fell behind 14-0.

Ravens -3 vs. CHARGERS ✅ – The Chargers are fun to watch, but you tend to watch them lose. The Ravens are starting to look like legit contenders this year.

Parlay +4542 ❌ – This is like buying a lottery ticket but I gotta dig out of this season hole somehow.
- Steelers -2.5
- Jaguars -1.5
- Patriots -4.5
- Chiefs -9
- Bills +3
- Ravens -3

Teaser +600 ❌ – A cover-my-ass lottery ticket. Never betting on the Patriots again. Almost had it.
- Steelers +3.5
- Jaguars +4.5
- Patriots +1.5
- Chiefs -3
- Bills +9
- Ravens +3

Teaser: +160 2× bet ✅ ✅ ✅ – A cover-my-ass’s covering of my ass.
- Chiefs -3
- Bills +9
- Ravens +3

Season to date (weeks 1-10): 21-37-1This week: 8-7-1

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美式足球 比赛预测 投注策略
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