Astral Codex Ten Podcast feed 2024年07月17日
Trump: A Setback for Trumpism
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一项研究表明,特朗普的当选,虽然看似推动了民族主义,但在欧洲却引发了对欧盟的支持浪潮,人们更加团结,对欧盟的认同感增强。这表明,一些看似全球性的胜利,可能在其他地区引发抵制情绪,甚至推动国际合作和团结。

🤔 **特朗普的当选引发了全球性的反弹**:尽管特朗普的当选似乎是民族主义的胜利,但研究表明,在欧洲,人们对欧盟的支持度反而大幅提升,这表明特朗普的当选可能在其他地区引发了对民族主义的反弹,促进了国际合作和团结。

📊 **数据表明,欧洲对欧盟的支持度在特朗普当选后大幅提升**:一项欧洲范围的民调显示,在特朗普当选前后,人们对欧盟的支持度发生了显著变化。在特朗普当选后,对欧盟的支持度大幅提升,相当于三年教育带来的提升效果。

🌎 **特朗普效应并非全球统一的趋势**:这项研究表明,特朗普的当选对不同地区的影响并不相同,在欧洲,人们对欧盟的支持度提升,显示出人们对国际合作和团结的渴望。

📈 **全球自由贸易、移民支持、对主流媒体的信任度等方面都出现了上升趋势**:除了对欧盟的支持度外,研究还发现,在美国,对全球自由贸易、移民支持、对主流媒体的信任度等方面也出现了上升趋势,这表明人们对特朗普的政策和言论存在抵触情绪,反而更加支持开放和包容的理念。

💡 **特朗普的当选可能引发了人们对国际合作和团结的重视**:研究表明,特朗普的当选虽然看似推动了民族主义,但在欧洲却引发了对欧盟的支持浪潮,人们更加团结,对欧盟的认同感增强。这表明,一些看似全球性的胜利,可能在其他地区引发抵制情绪,甚至推动国际合作和团结。

Donald Trump has been called a setback for many things. America. The global community. The environment. Civil service. Civil society. Civility. Civilization. The list goes on.

One might think he has at least been useful to his own cause. That he could at least claim to have benefited the ideas of populism, nationalism, immigration control, and protectionism. That if anything could avoid being devastated by Trump, it would be Trumpism.

But here are some polls from the past few years. They’re all on slightly different things, but I think together they tell an interesting story:

 

 

Support for global free trade mysteriously spiked around 2016.

 

So did moral support for immigrants.

 

 

…and, less clearly but still there, support for increasing the number of immigrants (though see here for an apparently contrary source).

 

 

 

…and opposition to deporting illegal immigrants.

 

 

 

So did belief in racial discrimination as a major cause of inequality, according to this chart with a completely unbiased title which is willing to let readers decide how to think about this issue for themselves.

 

 

 

And so did trust in the New York Times and other mainstream media sources.

The clearest example I can find of this effect doesn’t come from the US at all. It’s Minkus, Deutschmann & Delhey (2018). They find that a large European poll asked the same question about support for the EU the week before and after Trump’s election. Just after the election, there was a giant spike in support for the EU, “considerable in size, roughly equivalent to three years of education”. They conclude that:

The election of Trump as a right-wing nationalist with a declared aversion to supranational institutions including the EU — did not trigger a domino effect in the same direction in Europe. To the contrary, a rally effect occurred, in which Europe moved closer together, rallying around the EU’s “flag.” This indicates that an event that may at first sight appear to be a global victory for nationalism can immediately trigger measurable sentiments of resistance in another part of the world, actually leading to new impetus for supranationalism.

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相关标签

特朗普 民族主义 欧盟 全球化 反弹
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