在《Hidden Forces》第27集中，主持人Demetri Kofinas与经济学家Gary Shilling对话，讨论了特朗普经济政策的影响、加密货币的角色以及2018年股票、商品和美元的前景。Shilling以其对美债市场长达36年的牛市预测而闻名。

📈 Gary Shilling认为，美国需要进行监管改革，但政策制定者面临的挑战在于找到平衡点和实用性。70年代的动荡导致了诸如工资和价格控制的灾难性监管措施，而80和90年代的金融去监管则撤销了保护投资者、防止银行系统过度互联的保障。

💼 特朗普的税收计划可能会使企业和公司成为最大的受益者，但个人纳税人能从中获得什么？同时，是否应该撤销一些作为对2008年金融危机回应而通过的金融监管？

🌟 就业市场的状况如何？在资产价值上升和债务负担增加的情况下，就业前景和工资水平将如何变化？

🏦 如果Shilling的预测正确，即美债市场继续保持牛市，那么这对2018年的股票、商品和美元意味着什么？油价是否会继续上涨，还是可能会因需求疲软和供应过剩而受阻？

🏦 联邦储备银行的持续紧缩政策将如何影响经济？我们是否注定会看到10年期美债收益率的倒挂？Shilling还对比特币发表了看法，认为这种加密货币严重高估。

In Episode 27 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with economist Gary Shilling, who famously called the bottom in what has become a 36-year bull market in US Treasuries, about the ramifications of Donald Trump’s economic policies, the role of cryptocurrencies, and the prospect for stocks, commodities, and the dollar in 2018.

Few would reasonably argue that regulatory reform is not needed in the United States. The issue for politicians and policymakers has always been one of balance and practicality. The turbulence of the 1970’s produced a slew of regulatory measures like wage and price controls that proved disastrous for the economy. Likewise, the financial deregulation of the 1980s and 1990s rolled back investor protections that had served to safeguard customer deposits and prevent excessive interconnectivity in the banking system.

In the context of the current economic expansion, one must consider the impact that deregulation and higher after-tax income will have on an economy already in its ninth year of economic expansion. With corporations and businesses standing to benefit most from tax cuts proposed by Senate and House Republicans, what do individual tax-filers stand to gain from the Trump tax plan? Are there benefits to rolling back some of the financial regulations passed in reaction to the fallout of the great financial crisis of 2008? What does the employment picture look like for the US economy? How do job prospects and wages fare in the face of rising asset values and growing debt burdens? If Gary Shilling is right and treasuries remain in a bull market, what does this mean for the fate of stocks, commodities, and the US dollar in 2018? Will the price of oil continue its recent rise, or may some combination of weak demand and oversupply hamper prices? How will the Federal Reserve’s ongoing tightening affect the economy and are we destined to see an inversion of the yield curve for 10-year US Treasuries? Gary Shilling also gives us his two cents on bitcoin, and why he thinks the cryptocurrency is massively overvalued.

Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas

Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou

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