本期Hidden Forces播客邀请了加密货币投资公司Placeholder的联合创始人Chris Burniske，探讨了如何评估加密货币的价值。Chris曾领导ARK Invest的下一代互联网策略，是首个投资加密货币的公共基金经理，并推动了华尔街将加密货币视为一种新的资产类别。随着加密货币的总市值在2018年初突破8000亿美元，华尔街的关注度也随之提升。2017年底推出的比特币现金结算期货市场，是加密货币长期可行性的众多利好信号之一。这也为机构资金和专注于加密货币的对冲基金打开了大门，这些基金拥有数亿美元的资金可供部署。虽然加密货币的盈利机会十分诱人，但机构和私人资本涌入加密货币市场也助长了投机狂热。这种资产类别的新颖性和缺乏历史价格数据，使得对其进行准确估值更加困难。因此，在这些限制条件下，如何评估加密货币的价值仍然是一个问题。答案在于宏观经济学和金融模型的交汇点。Chris Burniske和Demetri Kofinas首先建立了加密资产的分类体系，将其分为三类：加密货币、加密商品和加密代币。在他们的对话中，他们探讨了如何学会区分不同的货币、DApps和代币。如何判断白皮书的价值、开发团队的认真程度以及早期采用者的热情？治理有多重要？基础代币的波动性如何影响软件的健壮性？供应计划如何决定未来价值？哪些是最可靠的、早期成功或失败的指标？这些只是Demetri和Chris在本期内容丰富的对话中讨论的一些问题。

🤩 **加密资产分类**: 本期节目首先介绍了加密资产的分类体系，将加密资产分为三类：加密货币、加密商品和加密代币。加密货币是指作为交易媒介的加密资产，例如比特币和以太坊；加密商品是指具有内在价值的加密资产，例如黄金和石油；加密代币是指代表特定权利或服务的加密资产，例如平台代币和安全代币。

🧐 **评估加密货币的价值**: 评估加密货币价值需要考虑多个因素，包括白皮书的质量、开发团队的经验、社区的活跃度、治理机制的健全性以及代币的供应计划等。白皮书是项目的核心文件，应该详细阐述项目的愿景、技术、团队、经济模型等信息。开发团队的经验和能力将直接影响项目的开发进度和质量。社区的活跃度反映了项目的受欢迎程度和用户参与度。治理机制的健全性能够确保项目的长期可持续发展。代币的供应计划则决定了代币的稀缺性以及未来价值。

📈 **加密货币的未来**: 虽然加密货币市场充满了机遇，但也存在着风险。投资者需要谨慎评估项目的价值，并做好风险控制。未来，加密货币可能会在金融领域扮演越来越重要的角色，但其发展仍处于早期阶段，需要持续关注和探索。

🚀 **成功指标**: 评估加密货币项目成功与否，可以关注以下指标：代币价格的涨跌、交易量的变化、社区的活跃度、开发进度的更新以及媒体的报道等。

🤔 **风险控制**: 投资加密货币风险很大，投资者需要做好风险控制，例如分散投资、设定止损点、不要追涨杀跌等。

💰 **投资建议**: 投资加密货币需要谨慎，不要盲目跟风。投资者应该根据自己的风险承受能力和投资目标，选择合适的项目进行投资。

🤝 **社区的力量**: 加密货币社区的力量不可忽视，一个活跃的社区能够为项目提供支持和推广。投资者可以通过参与社区活动，了解项目的最新进展和社区成员的意见。

💡 **未来展望**: 加密货币技术不断发展，未来可能会出现更多新的应用场景和投资机会。投资者需要持续关注行业发展趋势，并做好学习和研究。

🚀 **监管政策**: 加密货币的监管政策正在不断完善，投资者需要关注政策变化，并做好合规操作。

In Episode 31 of Hidden Forces, host Demetri Kofinas speaks with Chris Burniske about how to value a cryptocurrency. Chris is a co-founder of Placeholder, a New York venture firm that specializes in cryptoassets. Before Placeholder, Chris Burniske pioneered ARK Invest's Next Generation Internet strategy, leading the company to become the first public fund manager to invest in cryptocurrency. He then transitioned to focus exclusively on cryptoassets, paving the way for Wall Street to recognize it as a new asset class. His commentary has been featured on national media outlets, including the Wall Street Journal, the New York Times, Fortune, and Forbes.

With the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrency having surpassed $800 billion by the start of 2018, it was only a matter of time before Wall Street would stand up and take notice. The establishment of a cash-settled futures market for bitcoin in late 2017 is one of many bullish signs for the long-term viability of cryptoassets. It has also opened the door to further institutional capital and crypto-focused hedge funds with hundreds of millions of dollars to deploy. The opportunities for profitmaking are too lucrative to ignore, but the flood of institutional and private capital into the cryptocurrency space is also fueling a speculative mania. The newness of this asset class and its lack of historical price data make proper valuations even more challenging. So, given these constraints, the question remains, how do you value cryptocurrency?

The answer lies at the intersection of macroeconomics and financial modeling. Chris Burniske and Demetri Kofinas start by laying out a taxonomy for cryptoassets that breaks them into three categories: cryptocurrency, cryptocommodities, and cryptotokens. In their conversation, they explore how one can learn to differentiate between the different currencies, DApps, and tokens. How does one judge the merits of a white paper, the seriousness of the dev team, and the enthusiasm of early adopters? How important is governance? How can volatility in the underlying token impact the robustness of the software? How do supply schedules determine future values? What are some of the most reliable, early indicators of success or failure for a cryptoventure? These are just some of the questions that Demetri and Chris address in this highly informative and timely conversation.

Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas

Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou

Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod