作者回顾了2015年以来对特朗普的预测，对48条预测进行了评估，发现其中37条方向正确，平均对数误差评分为-0.48。作者还强调了在预测市场上的成功，以及对一些重要趋势的预判。

🤔 作者在2015年10月23日发表了一篇关于特朗普的文章，指出特朗普的选民基础并非如媒体所宣传的那样单一，而是展现了种族多样性。作者认为特朗普在非白人选民群体中获得了比之前共和党候选人更高的支持率。

📈 作者的预测得到了证实，2016年大选结果显示，特朗普在非白人选民群体中获得了比罗姆尼更高的支持率，尤其是在黑人、亚裔和拉丁裔选民群体中。

🎯 作者指出，将特朗普的成功归因于对白人选民的特殊吸引力是一种错误的解读，这种说法缺乏事实依据，更多地源于对种族主义共和党人的需求。

💰 作者在预测市场上获得了四倍的回报，这表明他的预测在一定程度上是准确的。

🤔 作者还指出，他的一些预测虽然方向正确，但也存在一些错误，这需要反思和改进。

💡 作者的预测回顾表明，对政治事件进行预测需要基于数据和分析，并不断进行修正和改进。

📈 作者的预测结果也反映了美国政治格局的复杂性和变革性。

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-grading-my-trump-predictions

 

I had many opinions on Donald Trump. I tried to back some of those opinions up with predictions about what would happen during his administration. Now that the dust has cleared, it's time to see how I did.

The summary: Of 48 specific predictions about Trump, I got 37 directionally right, although this is kind of meaningless. I got an average log error score of -0.48 (where getting everything right is 0 and guessing 50-50 for everything is -0.69) although this is also kind of meaningless. I quadrupled my money on prediction markets, which I think is meaningful. In terms of my more qualitative/implied predictions, got at least one important trend right before anyone else, but also made some embarrassing unforced errors.

Going through all my predictions post by post, and giving each a letter grade:

1: 10-23-2015: Trump's base is/will be surprisingly racially diverse (A-)

As far as I know, the first post I wrote about Trump was this one, where I argued against the prevailing narrative that Trump was practicing "the politics of white insecurity" or had an unusually white base of support (for a Republican). I wrote that Trump seemed to be doing pretty well (for a Republican) among blacks and Hispanics, and concluded that:

There are too few data to say anything for sure. But all of the data that exist suggest that if the Republican primary were held today and restricted to non-whites, Trump would still win. And if Trump were the Republican nominee, he could probably count on equal or greater support from minorities as Romney or McCain before him. In other words, the media narrative that Trump is doing some kind of special appeal-to-white-voters voodoo is unsupported by any polling data.

I was right. In the general election a year later, Trump did better than Romney had among non-white voters. He made large gains among blacks, Asians, and Latinos. The only ethnic group where he didn't gain at least five percentage points over Romney's numbers was whites. As I pointed out at the time, the narrative that Trump was especially appealing to white voters was bizarre and not truth-based, motivated primarily by a demand for racist Republicans on the part of increasingly woke narrative-consumers.