本期节目邀请了北京大学金融学教授迈克尔·佩蒂斯，深入探讨了国际贸易冲突与国内财富分配之间的关系。他与主持人德米特里·科菲纳斯共同分析了国际收支和资本流动如何影响贸易、资产价格、利率、债务水平和货币估值，并解释了这些因素如何导致资本在盈余国和赤字国之间出现错误配置。节目还将这种分析框架应用于美国、欧元区和中国等具体经济体，并探讨了金融不稳定如何转化为政治危机。

🤔 **国际收支与资本流动：** 国际收支和资本流动受到一个国家内部财富和收入分配的影响，进而影响贸易、资产价格、利率、债务水平和货币估值，最终导致资本在盈余国和赤字国之间出现错误配置。

📈 **贸易战就是阶级战：** 佩蒂斯教授及其合著者马修·克莱因在最新著作《贸易战就是阶级战》中指出，国家内部不断加剧的不平等是导致国家之间贸易冲突的关键原因。

🌎 **全球经济体案例分析：** 本期节目将佩蒂斯教授的分析框架应用于美国、欧元区和中国等具体经济体，分析了这些国家在国际贸易和资本流动中的角色，以及其内部财富分配与外部贸易冲突之间的关系。

🚨 **金融危机向政治危机演变：** 由于金融不稳定，贸易冲突日益加剧，导致国际政治局势紧张，将金融危机转化为政治危机。

📚 **深入学习资源：** 该节目提供了丰富的学习资料，包括相关概念和理论的链接、图表和图片，帮助听众深入理解国际贸易和资本流动背后的复杂机制。

In Episode 137 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with professor of finance at Beijing’s Peking University, Michael Pettis. Profesor Pettis’ research has focused mainly on Chinese financial markets, global trade & capital flows, and central banking. He spent seventeen years on Wall Street running fixed-income trading and capital market desks and has advised governments on privatizations of national banking systems and commercial bank debt restructuring & loan issuance. 

In their latest book, “Trade Wars are Class Wars,” Michael Pettis and his co-author Matthew Klein argue that rising inequality within countries heightens trade conflicts between them.   The entire conversation lasts for approximately two hours and we devote the first hour to understanding how balance of payments and capital flows—themselves heavily dependent on the dynamics of wealth and income distribution within a country’s borders—can generate imbalances in trade, asset prices, interest rates, debt levels, and currency valuations, often leading to misallocations of capital for the surplus and deficit countries alike.  

The second hour is devoted to applying this balance of payments framework to specific economies—namely, the United States, the Eurozone, and China. Demetri and Michael discuss how the financial instability generated from the sorts of imbalances discussed in this episode are now seeping into our systems of government, turning a financial crisis into a political one.

For Super Nerds and Autodidacts, you will want to consult your rundowns and have your transcripts handy for this episode. There are links in the rundown to many of the concepts and theories discussed, as well as charts and images that are relevant to the discussion. 

You can access the overtime of Demetri’s conversation with Michael Pettis, as well as obtain copies of the transcript and rundown to this week’s episode through the Hidden Forces Patreon Page. All subscribers gain access to our overtime feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application.

Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas

Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou

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Episode Recorded on May 16th, 2020