本期 Hidden Forces 播客邀请了前美联储官员 Bill Nelson，他现任银行政策研究所首席经济学家兼执行副总裁。节目中，Nelson 详细阐述了美联储货币政策的运作机制，尤其关注 2008 年金融危机后美联储货币政策的演变。他探讨了巴塞尔协议 III 和多德-弗兰克法案对货币政策的影响，以及美联储在危机期间采取的紧急措施如何解释当前市场的一些现象。同时，节目还讨论了通货膨胀和通货膨胀预期，以及美联储独立性面临的挑战。

🤔 **美联储货币政策的演变:** 2008 年金融危机后，巴塞尔协议 III 和多德-弗兰克法案等监管措施，以及美联储在危机期间采取的紧急行动，对货币政策产生了重大影响。这些变化解释了当前市场的一些现象，比如美联储资产负债表大幅扩张和购买企业债券和企业债券 ETF。

📈 **通货膨胀和通货膨胀预期:** 由于美联储在危机期间采取了非常规的货币政策措施，导致了市场对通货膨胀的担忧。节目中探讨了通货膨胀预期是如何形成的，以及美联储如何应对通货膨胀的风险。

🛡️ **美联储独立性面临的挑战:** 美联储在危机期间采取的非常规措施，比如购买企业债券，引发了人们对其独立性的担忧。节目中探讨了美联储独立性的重要性，以及如何维护美联储的独立性。

🚀 **美联储的“大杀器”:** Nelson 在节目中提到了美联储的“大杀器”，即在未来可能采取的更激进的货币政策措施。他探讨了“大杀器”可能包括购买股票，以及美联储官员如何为这些购买辩护。

🔎 **关注的信号:** 节目中还探讨了哪些信号可能预示着美联储即将进入新的政策行动阶段。

🎙️ **对话嘉宾:** Bill Nelson，银行政策研究所首席经济学家兼执行副总裁，曾在美联储和国际清算银行工作。

🌎 **节目信息:** Hidden Forces 播客第 155 期，于 2020 年 9 月 16 日录制。

🎧 **收听方式:** Apple Podcasts、Spotify、Stitcher、SoundCloud、YouTube、CastBox、RSS Feed。

🤝 **支持方式:** 成为 Patreon 会员，订阅 Hidden Forces 网站上的邮件列表。

💬 **交流互动:** Facebook、Instagram 和 Twitter 上关注 @hiddenforcespod

In Episode 155 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Bill Nelson, Chief Economist & Executive Vice President at the Bank Policy Institute, who spent most of his career working at the Federal Reserve, with a brief stint at the Bank For International Settlements.

Before joining BPI, Dr. Nelson served as a deputy director of the Division of Monetary Affairs at the Federal Reserve Board and actually helped design and manage several of the Fed’s emergency liquidity facilities during the 2008 crisis.

Dr. Nelson’s expert understanding of the plumbing of our monetary system and how monetary policy is effectuated at the ground level is important because, despite all the ways in which the Fed has sought to increase transparency and further communication with the public over the years, the mechanics of monetary policy remain baffling to most people. Even those of us who think we understand how it works are often only scratching the surface.

Consequently, one of the items we discuss in this episode is how monetary policy has changed operationally since the 2008 crisis -- how a combination of regulations introduced by Basel III and Dodd-Frank, as well as emergency actions taken by the Fed during the financial crisis explain some of what we are seeing in markets today.

We also discuss inflation and inflation expectations, as well as credible threats to the Fed’s independence given how far it’s gone in expanding its balance sheet and in purchasing corporate bonds and corporate bond ETFs. In addition, we look at what it would take for the Fed to bring out “the Bazooka” as Bill Nelson refers to it, and what that Bazooka would look like. Would it include equities, and if so, how would Fed officials justify those purchases? Lastly, what type of language should we be focused on? What types of signs should we be looking for that might give us a hint that we are about to enter a new phase of policy action?

You can access the episode overtime, as well as the transcript and rundown to this week’s episode through the Hidden Forces Patreon Page. All subscribers gain access to our overtime feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application.

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Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas

Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou

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Episode Recorded on 09/16/2020