加州一直以来都是充满机遇的地方，吸引着无数人追逐梦想。然而，最近的一次加州州长竞选却呈现出一种奇怪的现象：很多原本有机会的人却错失了良机。作者认为，由于现任州长加文·纽森在过去一年中面临着种种问题，包括与共和党的冲突、疫情应对措施的争议以及州内经济和社会问题的持续存在，为其他人提供了竞选的机会。作者认为，只要拥有足够的知名度或资金，任何人都可以抓住这个机会，但最终却无人问津。

😨 加州州长加文·纽森在过去一年中遭遇了一系列挑战，包括与共和党的冲突、疫情应对措施的争议以及州内经济和社会问题的持续存在，这些问题导致了他的支持率下降，为其他人提供了竞选的机会。

🤔 加州拥有直接民主的传统，允许公民发起请愿，并在获得足够签名后进行全民公决。共和党人最终成功发起了“罢免纽森”的请愿，触发了州长选举。

🤯 尽管加州州长竞选存在着巨大的机会，但最终却无人问津。作者认为，任何拥有足够知名度或资金的人，包括演员、科技公司CEO、博主或网红，甚至作者本人，都有可能参与竞选，并拥有5-10%的胜率。

😔 作者认为，此次竞选的失误在于人们没有抓住机会，错失了成为加州州长的良机。

😔 作者表示，加州的政治环境充满了不确定性，而这次州长竞选的失误也反映了加州政治的复杂性和人们对政治参与的冷漠。

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/if-youre-so-smart-why-arent-you-governor

Californians love long-shot bets. Actors trying to make it big in LA, tech founders chasing unicorns in San Francisco, cult leaders trying to found religions in Pasadena. In Silicon Valley, VCs turn the long-shot bet into an art: if some new startup has a 5% chance of making a billion, that's $50 million in expectation. Just a whole state full of people looking for weird opportunities.

...which makes it extra funny that the biggest opportunity of all came by a few months ago, and they all missed it.

My claim is that basically anyone with the slightest amount of fame or money - any B-list actor, any second-tier tech CEO, any successful blogger or influencer, maybe me, maybe even you - could have maneuvered themselves into a position where they had a 5-10% chance of becoming Governor of California.

Let's start at the beginning.

Governor Gavin Newsom had a bad year. First he pissed off Republicans with his strong response to COVID. Then he pissed off the people who wanted strong responses to COVID by attending an unvaccinated unmasked dinner. Also, taxes are still high, homelessness is still high, rents are still (too damn) high, and parts of the state are literally on fire. Gavin Newsom didn't cause most of this, but he also hasn't announced any particularly inspired plans to fight it. Just a really, really bad year.

(also, his ex-wife is dating Donald Trump Jr, which has to hurt)

California has a long tradition of direct democracy. Citizens can circulate petitions, and if they get enough signatures, everyone has to vote on them. After several tries, Republicans finally got enough signatures on a “recall Newsom” petition to trigger an election. The way the election works is: there are two questions on the ballot. First, should Newsom be removed as governor? Second, if he is removed, who replaces him? Everyone gets to vote on both questions, so even if you want to keep Newsom you can still vote on who replaces him if he loses.