本期Hidden Forces节目邀请了传奇空头Jim Chanos，Kynikos Associates创始人，探讨卖空艺术与科学。节目涵盖了市场、政治和生活等多个方面，并深入探讨了价值导向型投资者的困境以及拜登政府对金融监管、资本市场、股票估值和经济的影响。此外，Chanos还分享了对特斯拉、Uber等公司商业模式和前景的见解，并分析了比特币的价值主张。最后，他们还回顾了历史，探讨了从过去汲取经验以展望未来的意义。

👨‍🏫 **卖空艺术与科学：** Jim Chanos分享了他对卖空的见解，强调了这项技能的复杂性和需要掌握的专业知识。他解释了卖空的基本原理，以及如何识别潜在的卖空目标，并探讨了在不同市场环境下卖空的策略。他认为，卖空不仅是一种投资策略，更是一种艺术形式，需要敏锐的洞察力和深刻的理解力。

📈 **价值导向型投资者的困境：** Chanos指出，在当前的牛市后期，价值导向型投资者面临着巨大的挑战。他分析了导致这种困境的原因，包括低利率环境、宽松的货币政策以及科技股的持续上涨。他认为，价值投资的原则仍然有效，但需要适应不断变化的市场环境，寻找被低估的价值机会。

🏛️ **拜登政府对金融市场的影响：** Chanos对拜登政府的金融政策持谨慎态度，他认为，拜登政府可能会加强监管，对大型科技公司进行反垄断调查，并可能实施更高的税收政策。他认为，这些政策可能会对资本市场和股票估值产生负面影响，但同时也可能为价值投资创造新的机遇。

🔮 **未来展望：** Chanos认为，历史可以为我们提供重要的启示，帮助我们更好地理解当前的市场环境和未来可能出现的趋势。他强调，市场总是处于不断变化之中，投资者需要保持警惕，不断学习和适应。他建议投资者关注长期价值，避免追逐短期趋势，并保持多元化的投资组合。

🚀 **比特币的价值主张：** Chanos对比特币的价值持怀疑态度，他认为，比特币缺乏内在价值，其价格上涨主要是由投机驱动。他认为，比特币的波动性很高，风险很大，投资者需要谨慎对待。他建议投资者关注传统资产，例如股票和债券，这些资产具有更强的稳定性和可预测性。

In Episode 164 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with legendary short-seller Jim Chanos, founder of Kynikos Associates, about the art and science of selling short.

What is short-selling? What does it mean to sell something short? How does one learn to do it successfully? These are just some of the questions that Demetri and Jim explore in their two-hour-long conversation on markets, politics, and life. Demetri asks Jim for his philosophy on investing and why value-oriented allocators have had a difficult time profiting during the later stages of this bull market. A vocal critic of corporate excess and malfeasance, Chanos also offers his view on what a Biden administration will mean for financial regulation, capital markets, equity valuations, and the broader economy. The two also dissect the business models and prospects of companies like Tesla and Uber and consider the value proposition of Bitcoin amid its extraordinary rise in recent weeks. They end with a conversation about history and what we might come to expect from the future by looking into the past.

This is yet another excellent, engaging, and profoundly eye-opening conversation in a series of such discussions that we have released in recent weeks. We hope you enjoy it!

You can access the episode overtime, as well as the transcript and rundown to this week’s episode through the Hidden Forces Patreon Page. All subscribers gain access to our overtime feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application.

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Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas

Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou

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Episode Recorded on 11/17/2020