本期节目中，政治数据科学家大卫·肖尔（David Shor）与主持人德米特里·科菲纳斯（Demetri Kofinas）探讨了民主党在近年的选举困境。肖尔指出，民主党在近年来选举中失利与民调失准有密切关系。他分析了民主党在2012年总统选举中成功预测结果的经验，并揭示了民主党在近年来选举中所面临的挑战，以及如何应对这些挑战。

🤔 **民主党面临的挑战:** 肖尔认为民主党近年来在选举中失利，主要原因在于其政策和言论与大多数美国人的价值观脱节。他指出，教育水平与意识形态极端主义之间存在相关性，而受教育程度较高的民主党候选人往往与大多数美国人意见不一致。这导致民主党在选举中难以获得广泛支持。

📊 **民调失准的原因:** 肖尔分析了民主党在2012年总统选举中成功预测结果的经验，并指出近年来民调失准的原因。他认为，民调失准并非由于民调本身存在缺陷，而是由于社会环境的变化导致了人们在民调中不愿意表达真实想法。

🗳️ **选举策略和未来展望:** 肖尔建议民主党应调整其政策和言论，以更好地与大多数美国人的价值观相一致。他认为，民主党需要更加关注经济问题，并减少对身份政治的强调。同时，他建议民主党应改革选举制度，以提高民调的准确性。

📈 **民主党未来走向:** 肖尔对民主党未来发展持谨慎乐观的态度。他认为，民主党需要进行自我反思，并做出必要的调整，才能在未来的选举中取得成功。他认为，民主党应该更加关注经济问题，并减少对身份政治的强调。

🇺🇸 **美国政治生态:** 肖尔认为，美国政治生态正在发生深刻变化，民主党需要适应这些变化才能在未来的选举中取得成功。他认为，民主党需要更加关注经济问题，并减少对身份政治的强调。同时，他建议民主党应改革选举制度，以提高民调的准确性。

In Episode 167 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with political data scientist David Shor. David was recently described in New York Magazine as Obama’s “In-House Nate Silver” for his work on the president’s re-election campaign where he was responsible for building and maintaining the campaign's election forecasting system, which accurately predicted the outcome to within a point in every state and was the primary input to the campaign's resource allocation decisions in the 2012 election.

In this conversation, David shares his theory about why Democrats have struggled to win elections in recent years, why the polls have been so off in both of the last two presidential elections, and what the implications of his findings are for the viability of the party and its ideological platform and rhetoric. 

We also look at how Republicans gained support from African American men and Hispanics in an election year that we were told was supposed to be a referendum on white privilege. Does this mean that identity politics has run its course, or does it just validate the assertions of people like New York Times op-ed columnist Charles Blow who claim that this is simply further evidence of the entrenchment of white supremacy in American society?

David also shares his predictions on the Georgia senate races and gives his opinion on how polling should be reformed. Lastly, Shor explains how education levels correlate with ideological extremism, how this has put Democratic candidates out of step with the majority of Americans, and what this means for policy choices in the event that the Democrats retake control of the senate in 2020 or 2022. 

You can access the episode overtime, as well as the transcript and rundown to this week’s episode through the Hidden Forces Patreon Page. All subscribers gain access to our overtime feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application.

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Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas

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Episode Recorded on 12/01/2020