本期Hidden Forces播客邀请了CrowdStrike前首席技术官兼联合创始人Dmitri Alperovitch，探讨了俄乌冲突的最新发展，包括俄罗斯与北约之间升级的风险、对中美关系的影响、针对西方国家的网络攻击、政治战以及更多内容。

🤔 **俄罗斯与北约之间的升级风险：** Dmitri Alperovitch 在播客中分析了俄罗斯与北约之间潜在的升级风险。他认为，俄罗斯可能会采取更激进的行动，包括对北约成员国实施网络攻击或军事行动，以回应西方国家对俄罗斯的制裁。他强调，这种升级可能会导致一场全球范围的冲突，因此需要谨慎行事。

🚀 **对中美关系的影响：** Dmitri Alperovitch 指出，俄乌冲突已经对中美关系产生了重大影响。他认为，美国可能会更加关注中国，并采取更强硬的立场来应对中国的崛起。同时，中国也可能利用俄乌冲突的机会来扩大其在全球的影响力。

🛡️ **网络战的风险：** Dmitri Alperovitch 作为网络安全领域的专家，深入探讨了网络战的风险。他认为，俄罗斯可能会利用网络攻击来破坏西方国家的关键基础设施，并制造混乱。他强调，西方国家需要加强网络防御，并采取措施来应对俄罗斯的网络攻击。

💡 **政治战的策略：** Dmitri Alperovitch 还分析了俄罗斯在俄乌冲突中使用的政治战策略。他认为，俄罗斯试图通过散布虚假信息和宣传来瓦解西方国家的团结，并削弱西方国家对乌克兰的支持。

🕊️ **和平解决的可能性：** Dmitri Alperovitch 认为，尽管局势紧张，但和平解决俄乌冲突仍然是可能的。他提出了一些建议，例如通过外交途径进行谈判、建立停火协议以及提供人道主义援助。他强调，需要各方共同努力，才能找到和平解决的办法。

🤝 **中美关系的未来：** Dmitri Alperovitch 认为，俄乌冲突可能会导致中美关系更加复杂。他认为，美国可能会更加关注中国，并采取更强硬的立场来应对中国的崛起。同时，中国也可能利用俄乌冲突的机会来扩大其在全球的影响力。

🛡️ **欧洲安全的新格局：** Dmitri Alperovitch 指出，俄乌冲突已经导致欧洲的安全格局发生重大变化。他认为，德国可能会重新武装，并加强其军事力量。他强调，欧洲需要建立一个新的安全架构，以应对俄罗斯的威胁。

💻 **网络战的未来：** Dmitri Alperovitch 认为，网络战将在未来扮演越来越重要的角色。他认为，随着技术的不断发展，网络攻击将变得更加复杂和危险。他强调，需要加强网络防御，并采取措施来应对网络攻击的威胁。

🎯 **如何理解这场冲突：** Dmitri Alperovitch 建议，要理解俄乌冲突，需要关注以下几个方面：俄罗斯的战略目标、俄罗斯的国内政治形势、西方国家的反应以及国际社会的作用。

🌐 **全球风险的应对：** Dmitri Alperovitch 强调，俄乌冲突不仅是欧洲的危机，也是全球的危机。他认为，需要各方共同努力，才能应对这场危机带来的挑战。

🧩 **战争背后的深层原因：** Dmitri Alperovitch 分析了俄乌冲突背后的深层原因，包括俄罗斯对北约扩张的担忧、俄罗斯对乌克兰的政治控制以及俄罗斯的民族主义情绪。

In Episode 235 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with the fmr. CTO and co-founder of CrowdStrike Dmitri Alperovitch about the latest developments in the war between Russia and Ukraine, including the risks of escalation between Russia & NATO, implications for US-Sino relations, cyberattacks against Western countries, political warfare, and much more.

Dmitri Alperovitch was on this podcast late last year for an episode titled “Why Putin Plans to Invade Ukraine,” in which he explained why he was convinced that Vladimir Putin was going to invade Ukraine in January or February of 2022. It was a controversial view at the time that proved to be absolutely correct in retrospect. Kofinas asked him back on the podcast to help explain (1) why so many people struggled to see this war coming, (2) the ramifications of Putin’s actions, including his strategic and perhaps, even messianic motivations, (3) risks of escalation, (4) pathways for de-escalation, (5) the implications of this war for US-Sino relations in negotiations over Taiwan, (6) the remilitarization of Germany and the strategic security of Europe, (7) and much more. Dmitri’s background in cybersecurity and forensic analysis also proved useful during a discussion about cyber warfare and the dangers of cyber escalation on the part of Russia in responding to Western economic sanctions.

The primary objective of today’s episode is to bring you up-to-speed on the latest developments in this geopolitical drama, with the larger, more long-term goal of helping you wrap your arms around some of the more nuanced aspects of the diplomatic crisis so that you know what to focus on, who listen to, and how to think about the types of risks that all of us face going forward.  

You can access the full episode, transcript, and intelligence report to this week’s conversation by going directly to the episode page at HiddenForces.io and clicking on "premium extras." All subscribers gain access to our premium feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application.

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Episode Recorded on 03/04/2022