本期Hidden Forces节目邀请了国际关系学教授John Mearsheimer和Stephen Walt，两位现实主义学派的代表人物，探讨了俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后的世界格局变化。他们分析了美俄关系的演变、中俄联盟的未来、美国转向亚洲的战略以及乌克兰战争对世界格局的影响。两位教授对美国外交政策提出了自己的见解，并探讨了文化战争与国际政治的联系。

🤔 **美俄关系的复杂性:** Mearsheimer和Walt认为，俄罗斯入侵乌克兰是美国长期以来对俄罗斯的扩张政策所导致的结果。美国不断将北约东扩，逼近俄罗斯边界，加剧了俄罗斯的安全焦虑。他们认为，美国应该反思自己的外交政策，避免进一步激化美俄矛盾。

🌍 **中俄联盟的未来:** 两位教授认为，中俄联盟是一种基于共同利益的战略联盟，并非真正的意识形态联盟。他们指出，中俄之间存在着潜在的利益冲突，例如在中亚地区的争夺。他们认为，中俄联盟的未来取决于双方能否有效管理利益冲突。

🗺️ **美国转向亚洲的战略:** Mearsheimer和Walt认为，美国转向亚洲的战略是不可避免的。他们指出，随着中国崛起，美国必须在亚太地区加强存在，以维护其在该地区的利益。他们认为，美国应该谨慎处理与中国的关系，避免陷入对抗，而是寻求合作共赢。

💥 **乌克兰战争的影响:** 两位教授认为，乌克兰战争对世界格局产生了深远的影响。他们指出，这场战争加剧了世界各国的安全焦虑，导致了全球范围内的政治和经济动荡。他们认为，这场战争可能会导致新的国际秩序的形成，并对美国在世界上的地位构成挑战。

🇺🇸 **美国外交政策的未来:** 两位教授认为，美国外交政策应该更加务实，以维护国家利益为核心。他们指出，美国不应该试图将自己的价值观强加于其他国家，而是应该尊重国家主权和国际法。他们认为，美国应该寻求与其他国家合作解决全球性问题，例如气候变化和核不扩散。

🔥 **文化战争与国际政治:** Mearsheimer和Walt认为，文化战争与国际政治密切相关。他们指出，文化战争往往会加剧国家之间的分歧，并导致国际关系的恶化。他们认为，美国应该努力克服国内的分裂，以更好地应对国际挑战。

In Episode 248 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with professors of international relations John Mearsheimer and Stephen Walt. Professor Mearsheimer is the R. Wendell Harrison Distinguished Service Professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago and the author of multiple books including “The Tragedy of Great Power Politics,” “Why Leaders Lie,” and “The Great Delusion: Liberal Dreams and International Realities.” Professor Walt is the Robert and Renee Belfer Professor of International Affairs at Harvard University's John F. Kennedy School of Government. He is also the author of several books including “Revolution and War,” “Taming American Power: The Global Response to U.S. Primacy,” and most recently “The Hell of Good Intentions.” They both have appeared separately on the podcast before: professor Walt for a conversation on the decline of US primacy and professor Mearsheimer on the power of nationalism in international affairs.

They are also both prominent members of the so-called “realist school” and their views have often run counter to the prevailing orthodoxy in Washington, which one could broadly characterize as interventionist. John Mearsheimer especially has gained attention for his views on Ukraine, which went viral after the recent Russian invasion. Just one of his videos on YouTube alone has been seen over 26 million times. Demetri asks him about that experience, why he thinks his views have resonated so strongly with the public, and if there’s a connection between peoples’ views on Ukraine and their positions on the larger culture wars that seem to be dividing so many of us in Western societies today.

Of course, the conversation veers well beyond Ukraine, which is just the touching off point for a much larger discussion about the future of great power competition, the endurance of the alliance between Russia and China, America’s pivot to Asia, and how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine could actually make that easier, and what should the goals of American foreign policy be.

You can access the full episode, transcript, and intelligence report to this conversation by going directly to the episode page at HiddenForces.io and clicking on "premium extras." All subscribers gain access to our premium feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application.

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Episode Recorded on 05/10/2022