本期隐藏力量节目邀请了TG Macro创始人Tony Greer，探讨了大宗商品超级周期与美联储紧缩周期下的投资策略。Tony Greer是一位拥有30年经验的大宗商品交易员，他将结合自身经验，帮助听众理解如何在长期结构性力量限制关键大宗商品供应的情况下，制定有效投资策略。

🎙️ **隐藏力量：大宗商品超级周期与美联储紧缩** 本期节目邀请了TG Macro创始人Tony Greer，探讨了大宗商品超级周期与美联储紧缩周期下的投资策略。Tony Greer是一位拥有30年经验的大宗商品交易员，他将结合自身经验，帮助听众理解如何在长期结构性力量限制关键大宗商品供应的情况下，制定有效投资策略。 节目中，Tony Greer首先分析了当前大宗商品市场面临的挑战，包括美联储紧缩政策带来的需求下降以及供应链瓶颈导致的供给不足。他认为，虽然短期内大宗商品价格可能会受到需求下降的影响，但长期来看，结构性供给限制将支撑大宗商品价格持续高企。 节目还讨论了如何制定投资策略，以应对大宗商品市场的波动性。Tony Greer建议，投资者应该关注那些拥有强劲基本面、能够抵御需求下降风险的大宗商品，例如能源和农业。他还建议投资者利用期货市场进行套期保值，以降低投资风险。 最后，节目还探讨了大宗商品超级周期的影响。Tony Greer认为，大宗商品超级周期将为投资者带来长期投资机会，但投资者需要谨慎选择投资标的，并做好风险控制。

📈 **大宗商品超级周期：长期结构性力量限制供应** 节目中，Tony Greer强调了长期结构性力量对大宗商品供应的限制。这些力量包括： * 矿产资源的枯竭：随着全球经济增长，对矿产资源的需求不断增加，而可开采的矿产资源却在减少。 * 环保法规的限制：随着人们对环境保护的重视，政府出台了越来越严格的环保法规，限制了矿产资源的开采。 * 地缘政治风险：一些主要产油国和产矿国存在政治不稳定，这可能会导致供应中断。 这些因素将导致大宗商品供应长期处于紧张状态，从而支撑大宗商品价格持续高企。

📉 **美联储紧缩周期：短期需求下降** 美联储的紧缩政策将导致利率上升，从而抑制经济增长，进而导致对大宗商品的需求下降。短期内，这可能会导致大宗商品价格下跌。 然而，Tony Greer认为，美联储的紧缩政策并不会改变大宗商品供应的长期趋势。随着经济的复苏，对大宗商品的需求将会反弹，从而推动大宗商品价格上涨。

💡 **投资策略：关注基本面、利用期货市场** Tony Greer建议，投资者应该关注那些拥有强劲基本面、能够抵御需求下降风险的大宗商品，例如能源和农业。他还建议投资者利用期货市场进行套期保值，以降低投资风险。 投资者可以利用期货市场对大宗商品进行套期保值，例如，如果投资者担心油价下跌，他们可以卖出原油期货合约，以锁定油价。如果油价真的下跌，投资者可以通过期货合约的收益来弥补实物油价的损失。

💰 **长期投资机会：大宗商品超级周期** Tony Greer认为，大宗商品超级周期将为投资者带来长期投资机会。投资者可以通过投资大宗商品相关的股票、债券和基金来分享大宗商品价格上涨的收益。 然而，投资者需要注意的是，大宗商品市场波动性较大，投资风险也较高。投资者需要谨慎选择投资标的，并做好风险控制。

💰 **投资策略：关注基本面、利用期货市场** Tony Greer建议，投资者应该关注那些拥有强劲基本面、能够抵御需求下降风险的大宗商品，例如能源和农业。他还建议投资者利用期货市场进行套期保值，以降低投资风险。 投资者可以利用期货市场对大宗商品进行套期保值，例如，如果投资者担心油价下跌，他们可以卖出原油期货合约，以锁定油价。如果油价真的下跌，投资者可以通过期货合约的收益来弥补实物油价的损失。

💰 **长期投资机会：大宗商品超级周期** Tony Greer认为，大宗商品超级周期将为投资者带来长期投资机会。投资者可以通过投资大宗商品相关的股票、债券和基金来分享大宗商品价格上涨的收益。 然而，投资者需要注意的是，大宗商品市场波动性较大，投资风险也较高。投资者需要谨慎选择投资标的，并做好风险控制。

In Episode 251 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Tony Greer, the founder of TG Macro, an independent research firm that provides fundamental, technical, and behavioral analysis of global markets to institutional and non-institutional clients alike.

This conversation follows-up on a series of episodes we’ve published recently focused on the macro, political, and geopolitical economy, with an especially strong focus on commodities, currencies, and government policy. The goal with all of these episdoes has been to help listeners develop a framework for thinking about some of the big-picture trends driving markets and the economy, with the ultimate goal of helping them gain the type of conviction needed in order to invest successfully in them.

Those who heard Demetri’s recent episode with Grant Williams know that he was able to use this framework to profitably exit long-held positions in risk-assets ahead of the recent market downturn and even rotated some of those profits into commodities, though as he has said countless times he did not allocate nearly enough because he lacked conviction. He didn’t know enough to feel confident in the Supercycle thesis that we laid out in our recent episode with Jeff Currie. He didn’t fuly appreciate the supply-side picture that the team at Doomberg has been writing about so presciently for the past year and that we spoke with them about during Doomberg’s recent appearance on Hidden Forces.

So what does one do now? What does one do if he or she is persuaded by the thesis that long-term, structural forces restricting the supply of key commodities will support persistently high prices even in the face of relatively weak demand, but doesn’t have conviction around what those prices could reasonably be, especially in the short-term ahead of a Fed tightening cycle?

This is why we’ve brought Tony Greer on the podcast. Tony’s specialty is trading commodities. He’s been doing it for 30 years and we’re going to rely on his experience to work through exactly the type of dilemma that has been laid out here and which many of you may also be struggling with.

You can access the full episode, transcript, and intelligence report to this week’s conversation by going directly to the episode page at HiddenForces.io and clicking on "premium extras." All subscribers gain access to our premium feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application.

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Episode Recorded on 05/17/2022