本期节目邀请了欧亚集团总裁兼创始人伊恩·布雷默，他也是GZERO Media的创始人，该公司致力于提供对国际事务的智能和引人入胜的报道。布雷默还著有十本书，包括他最近出版的《危机的力量》，他在书中论证了我们对即将到来的三场危机毫无准备：大流行应对、气候变化和下一场科技革命。节目首先讨论了乌克兰战争对全球大宗商品市场的影响，特别是石油和天然气，并重点关注了这场战争暴露了我们在向更可持续、无碳能源生产方式过渡时所面临的脆弱性，以及如何在确保满足《2016年巴黎协定》中提出的长期气候目标的同时，平衡国家安全关切。节目的第二部分继续讨论能源市场，并最终转向对2022年和2024年即将到来的选举的更广泛讨论，特别是为什么美国政治似乎存在持续的领导力赤字，以及我们能做些什么来改变这种情况。他们还讨论了媒体改革，以及我们作为个人，以及在某些情况下作为拥有大量追随者的影响者，能做些什么，以围绕我们所面临的、可能自冷战初期以来国际体系最危险时期的重要问题，进行更有建设性和善意的对话。

🤔 **乌克兰战争对全球能源市场的影响**: 乌克兰战争加剧了全球能源市场的不稳定，突显了我们对化石燃料的依赖，并对向更可持续的能源生产方式过渡提出了挑战。这场战争暴露了我们对俄罗斯天然气的依赖，以及如果我们想要实现气候目标，就需要找到替代能源方案。

🌎 **气候变化应对的挑战**: 布雷默强调，气候变化是全球面临的最紧迫的问题之一，但我们目前并没有采取足够的措施来应对这一挑战。他认为，我们需要在全球范围内进行合作，以减少碳排放，并投资于可再生能源。他还指出，乌克兰战争表明，我们必须找到更具弹性的能源系统，以减少对俄罗斯等国家的依赖。

🇺🇸 **美国政治的领导力赤字**: 布雷默认为，美国政治存在着严重的领导力赤字，这使得我们难以应对全球挑战。他指出，两党政治的极化、媒体的碎片化以及社交媒体的兴起，都加剧了这种领导力赤字。他认为，我们需要找到一种方法来恢复对政府的信任，并培养更具合作精神的政治文化。

📣 **媒体改革的必要性**: 布雷默认为，媒体改革至关重要，以促进更健康的公共对话。他指出，媒体的碎片化和社交媒体的兴起，导致了信息茧房的形成，加剧了社会分化。他认为，我们需要找到一种方法来促进更具建设性和善意的对话，并确保我们能获得准确和可靠的信息。

🛡️ **国际体系面临的挑战**: 布雷默认为，国际体系正处于一个非常危险的时刻。乌克兰战争、气候变化和科技革命等挑战，正在考验国际秩序的稳定性。他认为，我们需要找到一种方法来加强国际合作，并建立一个更具弹性的国际体系，以应对未来的挑战。

In Episode 255 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Ian Bremmer. Ian Bremmer is the president and founder of Eurasia Group, the world’s leading global research and consulting firm, and GZERO Media, a company dedicated to providing intelligent and engaging coverage of international affairs. Bremmer is also the author of ten books, including his latest, “The Power of Crisis,” in which he argues that we are unprepared for a trio of looming crises in the areas of pandemic response, climate change, and the next technological revolution. All of these looming crises that Ian focuses on are subjects that we’ve explored in great depth over the years with folks like fmr. FDA commissioner Scott Gottlieb, Secretary of Defense Ash Carter, NASA’s Chief Climate Scientist Gavin Schmidt, Google’s Eric Schmidt, and so many more. You can find all of those previous and relevant conversations in the related section on the episode page of our website.

Because of the ongoing war in Ukraine and its effect on global commodity markets—and in particular oil & gas—our conversation with Ian leads with a discussion about climate policy. The discussion focuses specifically on the war in Ukraine, what it reveals about our vulnerabilities as we try transition towards more sustainable, carbon-free forms of energy production, and how to balance our national security concerns while still ensuring that we can meet the long-term climate goals set out in the 2016 Paris Agreement.

In the second part of their conversation Kofinas and Bremmer continue their discussion about energy markets, eventually pivoting to a much broader conversation about the upcoming elections in 2022 and 2024, and specifically why there seems to be a persistent leadership deficit in American politics today and what we can do to change that. They also discuss media reform and what we can do as individuals and in some cases as influencers with large followings to have more constructive and good-faith conversations around the issues that matter to all of us as we navigate what may well be the most dangerous time for the international system since at least the early stages of the Cold War.

The goal of today’s conversation, among other things, is to bring you the perspective of someone who operates within some of the most powerful networks of people in the world—and is an advisor to many of them. Ian Bremmer has years of experience speaking with global leaders, CEO’s of Fortune 100 companies, and experts across all industries & territories, making him an invaluable resource for anyone trying to think about the future path of policy, risks to global governance, and so much more. 

You can access the full episode, transcript, and intelligence report to this week’s conversation by going directly to the episode page at HiddenForces.io and clicking on "premium extras." All subscribers gain access to our premium feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application.

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Episode Recorded on 06/21/2022