本期Hidden Forces播客，Demetri Kofinas与Michael Howell探讨了全球流动性及其对经济和资产价格的影响。Michael是CrossBorder Capital的首席执行官，该公司是一家总部位于伦敦的独立研究和投资公司，为机构投资者提供资产配置和资本市场咨询服务。他们分析了全球流动性的驱动因素，包括国家间和国家内部的金融和汇率关系，以及跨境资金、证券、商品和服务流动的决定因素。他们还探讨了全球流动性如何影响经济结果和资产价格，以及它对投资组合的影响。

😄 **全球流动性：资本战争的新武器** 全球流动性是指国家间和国家内部的金融和汇率关系，以及跨境资金、证券、商品和服务流动的决定因素。它是资本战争的新武器，美国、欧洲和中国都在利用它来实现自己的经济和地缘政治目标。 Michael Howell认为，全球流动性是不断变化的，并且受到各种因素的影响，包括货币政策、贸易关系、政治风险和技术进步。他指出，全球流动性对经济结果和资产价格有重大影响，因此投资者必须了解其驱动因素和影响。 全球流动性的变化会影响利率、汇率和资产价格。例如，当全球流动性增加时，利率往往会下降，因为投资者寻求更高的回报而将资金投入风险资产。这会导致资产价格上涨，例如股票和房地产。反之，当全球流动性下降时，利率往往会上升，因为投资者寻求更安全的投资而撤回资金。这会导致资产价格下降。 投资者必须了解全球流动性的驱动因素和影响，以便为他们的投资组合做出明智的决策。

🤔 **全球流动性的影响：经济结果和资产价格** 全球流动性对经济结果和资产价格有重大影响。当全球流动性增加时，它可以促进经济增长，因为企业更容易获得资金。然而，它也可能导致资产泡沫，因为投资者寻求更高的回报而将资金投入风险资产。 当全球流动性下降时，它可以抑制经济增长，因为企业难以获得资金。它也可能导致资产价格下跌，因为投资者寻求更安全的投资而撤回资金。 全球流动性的影响可以是复杂的，并且可能因国家而异。例如，美国拥有全球最强大的货币，因此美国可以利用其货币政策来影响全球流动性。然而，其他国家，如中国，也正在努力影响全球流动性。

🌎 **中国与全球流动性：美元的挑战者** 中国对全球流动性有浓厚的兴趣。作为世界第二大经济体，中国正在努力成为全球经济和金融体系中的主要力量。为了实现这一目标，中国希望减少对美元的依赖，并推动人民币成为全球储备货币。 中国正在采取各种措施来实现其目标，包括发展其资本市场、扩大人民币的国际使用范围，并参与全球金融机构。中国还与其他国家合作，建立新的国际金融体系，以减少对美元的依赖。 中国对全球流动性的影响仍在发展中。然而，随着中国经济实力的不断增强，中国对全球流动性的影响将越来越大。

In Episode 265 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Michael Howell. Michael is the CEO of CrossBorder Capital, a London-based, independent research and investment company that provides asset allocation and capital markets advice to institutional investors.

This conversation is a natural follow-up to our recent episodes with Lev Menand on the shadow banking system and Eric Basmajian on economic cycles. Specifically, the credit cycle and its leading impact on the economy and asset prices. But this conversation with Michael also pulls directly from other episodes as well with guests like Michael Pettis on global trade and finance, Claudio Borio on financial instability, Brent Johnson on the Revenge of the Dollar, James Aitken on Digital Currency and the Pivot to Asia, Russel Napier on the New Economic Order and the Asian Financial Crisis, and of course, one of my absolute favorites, a conversation with Kevin Coldiron, Tim Lee, and Jamie Lee on the role of the US Dollar as an international funding currency and as the primary driver of recurring systemic crises in the international financial system.

Global liquidity is a term that every single person working in finance and in financial media has not only heard of but has probably used at one point or another. And yet, if you were to ask most people what this term means or what it refers to they would be hard pressed to give you a clear or uniform answer. This is because the drivers of global liquidity, namely the financial and exchange rate relationships within and between countries and the determinants of cross-border flows of money, securities, goods and services, are constantly changing. In the process, they have become, in the words of Michael Howell, “the new weapons in the escalating Capital Wars between the U.S., Europe, and China,” the last of which has a vested interest in not only the long-term stability of the international financial system but perhaps even the eventual aim of displacing the Dollar in favor of the Yuan as the fulcrum around which international trade and commerce is eventually invoiced and credited

The goal of today’s conversation is not only to help you gain a deeper appreciation for what global liquidity is and the geopolitical and economic forces driving it but to also help you understand how it impacts you and your portfolio directly through the outsized role that it has on shaping economic outcomes and asset prices. This comes at a time when this very liquidity is receding faster than at any point since the Great Financial Crisis and by some measures, even quicker.

You can access the full episode, transcript, and intelligence report to this week’s conversation, along with the additional material provided by Michael Howell by going directly to the episode page at HiddenForces.io and clicking on "premium extras." All subscribers gain access to our premium feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application.

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Episode Recorded on 08/02/2022