Hidden Forces feed 2024年07月17日
Could America Lose a War Against China Over Taiwan? | Alex Velez-Green
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本期节目探讨了美国在太平洋地区面临的严峻局势,以及中国对台湾的潜在威胁。节目分析了中国军力的快速发展,美国在台海冲突中的潜在风险,以及美军在应对中国挑战时的不足。此外,节目还讨论了美国国防工业的现状,武器装备的储备问题,以及美军在应对持久战中的能力。最后,节目反思了导致当前美中关系紧张的因素,并展望了美国在未来应对中国挑战的策略。

🤔 中国军力不断增强:节目指出,中国军力在过去几年中取得了显著进步,其海军和空军力量已经能够挑战美国在太平洋地区的优势。中国军力的增强,特别是其反介入/区域拒止能力的提升,使美国在台海冲突中面临着更大的风险。

🤔 台湾危机:节目强调了美国在台海冲突中可能面临的失败风险。中国对台湾的军事威胁日益严峻,一旦中国决定采取行动,美国可能无法有效阻止。节目还讨论了中国在突破第一岛链后的潜在行动,以及美国如何应对。

🤔 美国国防工业的挑战:节目分析了美国国防工业的现状,以及其在应对中国挑战时的不足。美国需要重新评估其武器装备的储备,并加速生产以满足未来战争的需求。节目还讨论了美国在乌克兰战争和台湾问题之间的平衡,以及如何有效分配有限的资源。

🤔 美中关系的反思:节目反思了导致当前美中关系紧张的因素,以及美国在未来应对中国挑战的策略。节目认为,美国需要重新评估其外交政策,并采取更加务实的措施来维护其在亚太地区的利益。

🤔 美国的挑战:节目认为,美国正面临着自二战以来最严峻的国家安全挑战。美国需要采取积极措施来应对中国挑战,并确保其在全球范围内的领导地位。

In Episode 326 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Alex Velez-Green, the fmr. National Security Advisor to U.S. Senator Josh Hawley, who helped staff the senator on the Armed Services Committee and advised him on matters related to strengthening deterrence against China, including U.S. conventional and nuclear force structure and posture.

Alex and Demetri discuss the perilous situation in which the U.S. now finds itself in the Pacific, how it got here, and what is required to ready the U.S. military for a war against China in the next few years, and if we are lucky, deter it altogether.

The first hour of their conversation is dedicated to a discussion about the serious risks that the United States military currently faces in the pacific and why there is a real chance that the People’s Liberation Army will be able to defeat U.S. forces in a fight over Taiwan. This includes a discussion about Chinese intentions and the advancements that China’s military has made in the last several years, the consequences of losing a confrontation with China over Taiwan, and America’s ability to contain China once it has broken through the first island chain.

In the second hour, Velez-Green and Kofinas assess the state of America’s defense industrial base, what is being done to restock critical weapon systems and munitions, and how long it will take before the U.S. can feel confident in its ability to sustain a protracted war against China. In this context, they also discuss trade-offs between continuing to provide arms to Ukraine and delivering those same weapons systems and munitions to Taiwan in an effort to deter a Chinese invasion. They end the episode by reflecting on the legacy of foreign policy failures that have led to this moment, how we got here, and what needs to happen in order for the United States to prevail in what is likely to be the greatest national challenge the nation has faced since World War II.

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If you want to join in on the conversation and become a member of the Hidden Forces genius community, which includes Q&A calls with guests, access to special research and analysis, in-person events, and dinners, you can also do that on our subscriber page. If you still have questions, feel free to email info@hiddenforces.io, and Demetri or someone from our team will get back to you.

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Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas

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Episode Recorded on 09/14/2023

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相关标签

美中关系 台湾问题 军事对抗 国防工业 太平洋地区
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