本期 Hidden Forces 播客邀请 Albright Stonebridge 集团的 Paul Triolo 讨论美国对华芯片出口管制的影响。Triolo 认为，美国政府的目标尚不明确，可能会对西方企业造成负面影响。他分析了中国在芯片产业的应对措施，包括发展本土芯片生态系统和支持开源硬件架构。他还探讨了中国电动汽车的成功，以及美国政策制定者需要警惕的潜在风险。

💥 **美国芯片出口管制的影响** 美国政府对华芯片出口管制旨在限制中国芯片产业发展，但其目标和效果尚不明确。这些措施可能会对依赖中国市场的西方企业造成负面影响，并可能导致西方芯片生态系统长期受损。 美国政府的目标包括限制中国获取先进芯片技术，并确保其自身在芯片产业的领先地位。然而，这些目标是否清晰地传达给西方企业，以及美国政府是否明确了其最终目标，仍存在疑问。 出口管制的影响还包括可能导致芯片供应链断裂，以及加剧美中之间的科技竞争。此外，这些措施也可能对美国自身芯片产业造成负面影响，例如导致芯片价格上涨和供应不足。

🚀 **中国芯片产业的应对措施** 中国政府对美国芯片出口管制的回应包括采取新的工业政策，支持本土芯片产业的发展，以及推动开源硬件架构的应用。 中国政府正在积极支持本土芯片企业的研发和生产，并制定了一系列政策措施，包括提供资金支持、税收优惠和人才培养等。此外，中国还积极发展开源硬件架构，以降低对外国芯片的依赖。 中国在芯片产业的应对措施表明其决心克服技术壁垒，并打造自主可控的芯片产业链。虽然中国芯片产业在技术上仍落后于美国，但其庞大的市场规模和政府的强力支持将使其在未来几年内取得显著进展。

🚗 **中国电动汽车的成功：预示着未来？** 中国在电动汽车领域的成功表明，其在技术创新和产业发展方面具有强大的能力。这为美国政策制定者敲响了警钟，如果他们不采取措施，中国可能会在其他领域也取得类似的成功。 中国电动汽车的成功得益于政府的政策支持、产业链的完备以及技术的快速进步。中国政府在电动汽车领域制定了一系列政策措施，包括补贴、税收优惠和基础设施建设等。此外，中国拥有完善的电动汽车产业链，包括电池、电机、控制系统等关键零部件的生产企业。 中国电动汽车的成功为其他国家提供了借鉴，表明政府政策、产业链协同和技术创新是推动产业发展的关键因素。美国政策制定者需要认真思考如何应对中国在其他领域的崛起，并采取措施确保其在未来保持竞争优势。

In Episode 356 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Paul Triolo, Senior Vice President for China and Technology Policy Lead at Albright Stonebridge Group, where he advises clients in technology, financial services, and other sectors as they navigate complex political and regulatory matters around the world.

This episode was inspired by an article Paul recently published for American Affairs titled “A New Era for the Chinese Semiconductor Industry.” In it, he examines how semiconductor export controls levied by the US Commerce Department have been received in Beijing and how China's domestic semiconductor ecosystem has responded.

Paul and Demetri spend the first hour of the episode assessing the state of the Biden administration’s strategic competition with China in the area of semiconductors. Specifically, they ask (1) what are the administration’s goals, (2) are those goals clear to Western companies that have depended on selling into the Chinese market for a large share of their revenues, (3) and is the administration itself clear on what it wants to accomplish with these efforts?

In the second hour, they examine the fallout from the 2022 and 2023 semiconductor export controls, including some of the unintended consequences that could adversely impact major players in the Western semiconductor ecosystem over the long term. They discuss the Chips Act and whether more needs to be done to support America’s domestic semiconductor industry. They also do a deep dive into China’s response to these measures, including a new top-down approach to industrial policy and fully supporting open-sourced hardware architectures as a way to protect their companies from further restrictions. Lastly, they examine China’s success in electric vehicles and whether this is a harbinger of what could happen in other sectors if American policymakers are not careful.

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Episode Recorded on 03/05//2024