Hidden Forces feed 2024年07月17日
America’s National Savings and Debt Crisis | Lacy Hunt
index_new5.html
../../../zaker_core/zaker_tpl_static/wap/tpl_guoji1.html

 

在第359集的《Hidden Forces》节目中,主持人Demetri Kofinas与经济学家Lacy Hunt对话,讨论了美国的国债和储蓄问题。Hunt博士是Hoisington投资管理公司的执行副总裁兼首席经济学家,他在长达55年的职业生涯中研究市场和经济发展。节目中,Hunt分享了他对全球经济状况的广泛评估,并讨论了后疫情时期美国财政部的经济政策角色,以及国民净储蓄率的令人担忧的下降。他还解释了为什么他认为美联储能够在不到两年的时间里将利率提高超过500个基点而没有引发衰退。

🌍 Hunt博士对全球经济的综合评估指出,他依据的货币和周期性经济指标显示经济状况复杂多变。

🏛️ 美国财政部在后疫情时期的经济政策角色增强,但国民净储蓄率的下降引发关注。

📉 关于中性利率的下降,Hunt和Kofinas讨论了这对趋势增长、利率和通货膨胀意味着什么。

💼 Hunt分析了美联储在两年内提高超过500个基点的利率而没有导致衰退的原因,探讨了商业周期和货币政策的有效性。

🚀 高额财政赤字的影响以及在经济越来越依赖政府支出促进增长的情况下减少赤字的尝试,是讨论的另一个重点。

In Episode 359 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Economist Lacy Hunt about America’s national savings and debt crisis. Dr. Hunt is the Executive Vice President and Chief Economist of Hoisington Investment Management Company. He previously served as Chief U.S. Economist for the HSBC Group, as Executive Vice President and Chief Economist at Fidelity Bank, and as Senior Economist for the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas during the course of a 55-year career studying markets and the economy.

In the first hour, Lacy Hunt shares his broad assessment of how the global economy is doing and the monetary and cyclical economic indicators he relies on to make that assessment. He and Demetri discuss the increased role of the US Treasury as an economic policy actor in the post-pandemic period and the concerning decline in the net national savings rate. They also discuss whether the neutral rate of interest, a hotly debated topic among economists, is moving lower, and what this means for trend growth, interest rates, and inflation.

In the second hour, Dr. Hunt explains why he believes that the Fed has been able to raise interest rates by more than 500 basis points in less than two years without inducing a recession. Is this because other causal factors have remained more accommodative, or have the lags just grown longer and more variable, and if so, why? What does this tell us about the business cycle and the effectiveness of monetary policy? He and Demetri also discuss the chronically high fiscal deficits and the implications of trying to reduce them in an environment where the economy is becoming more dependent on government spending to boost economic growth, support critical national investments in energy and defense, and contribute to the private savings of the economy. Finally, Lacy Hunt explains why he believes that demographics are destiny and how trends in population growth, fertility rates, and family formation in many developed countries will impact growth and inflation in the years to come.

You can subscribe to our premium content and access our premium feed, episode transcripts, and Intelligence Reports at HiddenForces.io/subscribe.

If you want to join in on the conversation and become a member of the Hidden Forces Genius community, which includes Q&A calls with guests, access to special research and analysis, in-person events, and dinners, you can also do that on our subscriber page at HiddenForces.io/subscribe.

If you enjoyed listening to today’s episode of Hidden Forces, you can help support the show by doing the following:

Subscribe on Apple Podcasts | YouTube | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | CastBox | RSS Feed

Write us a review on Apple Podcasts & Spotify

Subscribe to our mailing list at https://hiddenforces.io/newsletter/

Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas

Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou

Subscribe and Support the Podcast at https://hiddenforces.io

Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod

Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas

Episode Recorded on 03/26/2024

Fish AI Reader

Fish AI Reader

AI辅助创作,多种专业模板,深度分析,高质量内容生成。从观点提取到深度思考,FishAI为您提供全方位的创作支持。新版本引入自定义参数,让您的创作更加个性化和精准。

FishAI

FishAI

鱼阅,AI 时代的下一个智能信息助手,助你摆脱信息焦虑

联系邮箱 441953276@qq.com

相关标签

美国国债 国民储蓄率 美联储政策 财政赤字 人口结构
相关文章