在《Hidden Forces》第364集中，主持人Demetri Kofinas与Gavekal首席执行官Louis-Vincent Gave探讨了去美元化、美国再工业化以及中国“通缩繁荣”和人民币重估的话题。Gave认为，美国和欧洲将经历长期的结构性高通胀，而中国经济则可能经历由半导体制造和电动汽车等关键行业快速发展驱动的“通缩繁荣”。他还解释了为什么他认为美国的帝国模式下的美元循环是不可持续的，以及去美元化是美国再工业化的先决条件。

📈 Gave指出，美国和欧洲将面临结构性高通胀的长期趋势，而中国可能会经历由半导体和电动汽车等行业快速发展带来的“通缩繁荣”。这一现象部分源于中国在这些关键领域的生产效率提升和技术创新。

💡 Gave认为，美国目前的帝国模式，即美元在全球范围内的循环利用，是不可持续的。这种模式加剧了财富分配不均和政治系统的不稳定，而去美元化是重振美国工业的必要步骤。

🏭 他还讨论了美国是否需要一项工业政策来扭转经济金融化的趋势，这种金融化导致了资产价格相对于其基础收入流的膨胀，进而扩大了财富差距并动摇了国家的政治体系。

In Episode 364 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Gavekal CEO Louis-Vincent Gave about de-dollarization, U.S. re-industrialization, and his case for a Chinese “deflationary boom” and revaluation of the renminbi.

In the first hour of their conversation, Demetri asks Louis-Vincent Gave about the most important trends set to define the investment landscape in the years ahead. Gave argues that the U.S. and Europe are set to undergo a long period of structurally high inflation while China’s economy is set to experience a “deflationary boom” partly driven by rapid advancements in key industries like semiconductor manufacturing and electric vehicles.

In the second hour, Gave explains why he believes that the American imperial model of dollar recycling is unsustainable and why de-dollarization is a prerequisite for the re-industrialization of the United States. They also discuss whether or not America needs an industrial policy to reverse the multi-decade financialization of the U.S. economy that has driven up asset prices relative to their underlying income streams, exacerbating the wealth divide while destabilizing the country’s political system.

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Episode Recorded on 05/14/2024