本期节目邀请BCG全球首席经济学家Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak探讨如何评估宏观经济风险，他提出了一种兼顾理性乐观和尾部风险的“经济折衷主义”框架。该框架强调情境灵活性和判断力，避免过度依赖预测模型，并通过案例分析展示了该方法在应对突发事件时的优势。节目还探讨了政府和央行刺激措施在风险评估中的作用，以及美国政府债务危机、美元全球储备地位和人工智能技术对经济增长的影响。

🤔 **经济折衷主义框架：** Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak提出了一种“经济折衷主义”框架，该框架强调情境灵活性和判断力，避免过度依赖预测模型。该框架认为，在评估宏观经济风险时，应该同时考虑理性乐观和尾部风险，既要避免过度悲观，也要警惕潜在的重大风险。

📈 **案例分析：**节目中探讨了四个案例，包括新冠疫情、俄乌冲突、通货膨胀和美联储加息，并分析了为什么许多预测未能实现的原因。通过这些案例分析，Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak强调了“经济折衷主义”框架在应对突发事件时的优势，并指出了传统预测模型的局限性。

💰 **政府和央行刺激措施：** 政府和央行刺激措施是影响宏观经济风险的重要因素。节目探讨了如何评估政府和央行刺激措施对经济的影响，以及如何将这些因素纳入投资和经营决策。

🇺🇸 **美国政府债务危机：** 美国政府债务危机是全球经济面临的重大风险之一。节目探讨了如何评估美国政府债务危机的风险，以及如何应对可能出现的债务违约。

💲 **美元全球储备地位：** 美元作为全球储备货币的地位面临着挑战。节目探讨了如何评估美元全球储备地位的风险，以及如何应对可能出现的美元贬值。

🤖 **人工智能技术对经济增长的影响：** 人工智能技术对经济增长具有重要影响。节目探讨了如何评估人工智能技术对经济增长的影响，以及如何利用人工智能技术提升生产力。

📊 **数据分析与判断力：** 在宏观经济风险评估中，数据分析和判断力同样重要。Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak强调了避免过度依赖数据和模型，并强调了结合历史经验和专业判断的重要性。

In Episode 370 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak, the Global Chief Economist at BCG and the author of “Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms,” about how to assess macroeconomic risk without relying on broken models, pervasive doom-mongering, and whipsawing data prints that have little to do with the structural drivers of economic and financial change.

The shocks and crises of recent years are a rude awakening for executives and investors who have spent the last 40 years operating in a relatively benign macroeconomic and political environment. This period of geopolitical convergence characterized by increased trade and capital flows, lengthening business cycles, declining interest rates, and stable inflation is over, forcing corporate leaders and investors alike to recognize that macroeconomic risk is now something that needs to be actively managed.

In the first hour, Demetri asks Philipp to explain his core framework of economic eclecticism, which relies on contextual flexibility, situational judgment, and rational optimism that neither ignores tail risks nor drags them to the center of the distribution.

They examine four case studies and their associated narratives to help us understand why so many predictions fail to materialize and how a more eclectic approach to macroeconomic risk assessment could have helped investors and business leaders avoid these pitfalls and take advantage of the economic and financial opportunities created by these events in real-time. 

In the second hour, Philipp and Demetri discuss the role of government and central bank stimulus as a variable that needs to be actively managed by investors and business executives. They also discuss how to assess the risks associated with a U.S. government debt crisis, the integrity of the U.S. Dollar as a global reserve asset, and how to assess the prospects of technologically induced productivity growth, including AI-driven improvements to a service-oriented economy like the U.S.

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Episode Recorded on 07/01/2024