本文通过对俄罗斯专家Paul Goble的访谈，深入探讨了普京在乌克兰战争中犯下的战略性错误，以及这些错误对俄罗斯带来的毁灭性后果。Goble认为，普京的战略失误主要体现在对俄罗斯自身实力的错误判断、对乌克兰抵抗的低估以及对西方反应的误判等方面，这些失误不仅导致了俄罗斯在军事上的失败，也加剧了俄罗斯国内的政治和经济危机。

😠 **普京对俄罗斯自身实力的错误判断**：普京错误地认为俄罗斯拥有强大的军事力量，能够迅速征服乌克兰，但他低估了乌克兰人民的抵抗意志，以及西方国家对乌克兰的支持力度。普京还错误地认为，俄罗斯可以利用其经济和军事实力来迫使西方国家妥协，但他低估了西方国家对俄罗斯的制裁决心。 普京的错误判断导致了俄罗斯在乌克兰战争中遭受了重大损失，不仅军事上损失惨重，而且经济也受到严重打击。

😥 **普京对乌克兰抵抗的低估**：普京错误地认为，乌克兰人民会欢迎俄罗斯的到来，并迅速投降。但他低估了乌克兰人民的民族自豪感和抵抗意志。乌克兰人民在俄罗斯入侵后，奋起抵抗，并得到了西方国家的支持，使得俄罗斯的战争计划彻底失败。 普京的错误判断导致了俄罗斯在乌克兰战争中陷入了泥潭，并付出了巨大的代价。

😡 **普京对西方反应的误判**：普京错误地认为，西方国家不会对俄罗斯的入侵采取强硬措施，只会进行一些象征性的制裁。但他低估了西方国家对俄罗斯侵略的愤怒和决心。西方国家对俄罗斯实施了史无前例的制裁，并向乌克兰提供了大量的军事援助，帮助乌克兰抵御俄罗斯的入侵。 普京的错误判断导致了俄罗斯在国际上孤立无援，并面临着巨大的经济和政治压力。

🤨 **普京对信息战的误判**：普京错误地认为，俄罗斯可以利用其宣传机器来控制信息流，并影响西方舆论。但他低估了西方国家对俄罗斯信息的抵制能力，以及社交媒体在传播信息中的作用。西方国家迅速揭露了俄罗斯的虚假宣传，并利用社交媒体来传播乌克兰的真相。 普京的错误判断导致了俄罗斯在信息战中处于劣势，并失去了国际舆论的支持。

😔 **普京对战争的误判**：普京错误地认为，乌克兰战争将是一场速战速决的战争，俄罗斯可以迅速取得胜利。但他低估了战争的复杂性和持久性。乌克兰战争已经持续了几个月，俄罗斯的战争目标并没有实现，而且战争的结束时间仍然遥遥无期。 普京的错误判断导致了俄罗斯陷入了一场旷日持久的战争，并付出了巨大的代价。

👍 **普京对俄罗斯的未来误判**：普京错误地认为，乌克兰战争将是俄罗斯重振其国际地位的机会。但他低估了战争对俄罗斯造成的伤害，以及战争对俄罗斯未来发展的负面影响。乌克兰战争已经导致俄罗斯的国际声誉下降，经济实力减弱，社会矛盾加剧。 普京的错误判断导致了俄罗斯在国际上的地位下降，并面临着巨大的挑战。

Continuing his series of expert interviews on the unfolding situation in Ukraine, Jim talks with Paul Goble, a longtime specialist on ethnic and religious issues in Eurasia...Continuing his series of expert interviews on the unfolding situation in Ukraine, Jim talks with Paul Goble, a longtime specialist on ethnic and religious issues in Eurasia. They discuss Putin's view of Russia as neglected & ignored, Russians' difficulty making ethnic distinctions between Ukrainian & Russians, Putin's unintentional unification of Ukraine & NATO, what Putin & most analysts got wrong about the military balance, Putin's misplaced faith in superior firepower, the ethnic makeup of the Russian military, why the backlash from the West was stronger than Putin expected, the West's unprecedented non-kinetic response to the invasion, effects & non-effects of the Western sanction regime, Russia's infosphere & increasingly closed internet, why Russian anti-war sentiment will increase, challenging bets against a continued Ukrainian resistance, Ukrainian resistance to the Soviet Red Army in 1945-1955, high effectiveness of low-tech resistance, Putin's coming claim of victory & why it would be Pyrrhic, what Putin would do in reaction to violence against him, the likelihood that NATO's increased coherence will continue, why China will probably not move on Taiwan in the near term, and much more. Episode Transcript Window on Eurasia (Paul's blog) "Putin’s Strategic Mistakes in Ukraine have Devastating Consequences for Russia, Pastukhov Says," by Paul Goble JRS Currents 054: Samo Burja on the Russia-Ukraine War JRS Currents 052: John Robb on War in UkrainePaul Goble, a longtime specialist on ethnic and religious issues in Eurasia for the US government and US international broadcasting, currently blogs at Windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com. Prior to retiring from the US government in 2004, he worked in the intelligence community, the State Department and US international broadcasting. Since then, he has taught in Estonia at the University of Tartu and Audentes University in Tallinn, at the Azerbaijan Diplomatic Academy in Baku, and the Institute of World Politics in Washington. The editor of eight volumes on ethnic and religious issues, he is the author of more than 100 articles and chapters and more than 1,000 op-eds in US and European publications. He has been decorated by the governments of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania for his work in promoting the restoration of Baltic independence. He lives in Staunton, Virginia, and can be reached at paul.goble@gmail.com.