本期节目中，Jim与圣塔菲研究所教授Jessica Flack探讨了乌克兰战争的N阶效应。他们讨论了二阶效应和N阶效应的含义、黑天鹅事件、高斯分布与肥尾分布模型在极端社会事件中的应用、乌克兰小麦和俄罗斯化肥生产的影响、能动性与反身性、对事件的极端感知如何放大二阶效应、体育中的“热手现象”、欧洲战争的黑天鹅事件、针对普京的迅速协调行动作为对疫情期间集体智慧失败的效应、俄罗斯的“升级以降级”原则、战场选择以及中国可能从战争中吸取的教训、民主倾向国家与威权国家之间发生两极战争的可能性、永久排斥俄罗斯的网络效应等等。

🤔**二阶效应和N阶效应**：二阶效应是指某个事件引发的直接后果，而N阶效应是指该事件引发的连锁反应，即一系列间接后果。例如，乌克兰战争的二阶效应包括能源价格上涨和全球粮食供应链中断，而N阶效应则包括政治不稳定、经济衰退和社会动荡。

🤯**黑天鹅事件与肥尾分布模型**：黑天鹅事件是指不可预测的、具有重大影响的事件，例如乌克兰战争。传统的预测模型通常基于高斯分布，但无法解释黑天鹅事件的发生。肥尾分布模型则可以更好地解释极端事件，例如战争、金融危机和气候变化。

🌍**乌克兰战争的全球影响**：乌克兰战争对全球经济和政治格局产生了深远影响。乌克兰是全球重要的粮食生产国，战争导致小麦和化肥供应链中断，加剧了全球粮食危机。此外，战争也加剧了全球政治紧张局势，导致西方国家与俄罗斯之间的关系进一步恶化。

🧠**集体智慧与反身性**：乌克兰战争也反映了集体智慧的重要性。尽管在应对疫情方面存在集体智慧的失败，但国际社会迅速协调行动，对俄罗斯实施制裁，并向乌克兰提供援助。反身性是指人们对事件的预期会影响事件本身的发生和发展。例如，对战争的预期会影响人们的行为，进而影响战争的进程。

💡**战争的教训**：乌克兰战争为我们提供了许多宝贵的教训。战争表明，在复杂系统中，事件的发生往往是不可预测的，需要我们对未来保持警惕。战争也表明，国际合作是应对全球性挑战的关键。

⚔️**战争的未来**：乌克兰战争的结局尚不明朗，但这场战争可能会对未来世界格局产生深远影响。战争可能会导致世界进入一个新的两极时代，民主倾向国家与威权国家之间的矛盾加剧。战争也可能会导致国际秩序的重塑，以及新的全球治理机制的出现。

Jim talks with Jessica Flack about nth-order effects of the war in Ukraine...Jim talks with Jessica Flack about nth-order effects of the war in Ukraine. They discuss the meaning of second- and nth-order effects, black swans, Gaussian vs fat-tailed distribution models of extreme social events, factoring in Ukraine's wheat & Russia's fertilizer production, agency & reflexivity, how perceptions of events as extreme can amplify second-order effects, the "hot hand phenomenon" in sports, the black swan of war in Europe, swift coordination against Putin as an effect of collective intelligence failures around Covid, Russia's "escalate-to-de-escalate" doctrine, arena selection & lessons China might take from the war, the possibility of a bipolar war between democratic-leaning & authoritarian countries, network effects of excluding Russia permanently, and much more. Episode Transcript JRS EP48 - Jessica Flack on Complex Systems Dynamics JRS Currents 015: Jessica Flack & Melanie Mitchell on Complexity JRS Currents 058: John Robb on Russia-Ukraine Outcomes "Robustness mechanisms in primate societies: a perturbation study," by Jessica Flack, David Krakauer & Frans de Waal JRS Extra: On COVID-19 Opportunities with Jessica FlackJessica Flack is a professor at the Santa Fe Institute. Flack directs SFI's Collective Computation Group (C4). Flack was formerly founding director of the Center for Complexity and Collective Computation in the Wisconsin Institute for Discovery at the University of Wisconsin, Madison. Flack received her PhD from Emory in 2003, studying cognitive science, animal behavior and evolutionary theory, and BA with honors from Cornell in 1996. Flack's work has been covered by scientists and science journalists in many publications and media outlets, including Quanta Magazine, the BBC, NPR, Nature, Science, The Economist, New Scientist, and Current Biology.Flack's research focuses on collective computation and its role in the emergence of robust structure and function in nature and society. A central philosophical issue behind this work is how nature overcomes subjectivity inherent in information processing systems to produce collective, ordered states.